(BFM Bourse) – The Euro / Dollar currency pair continued to neutralize each other, around $ 1.22, as speculation rises on the outcome of the two monetary meetings (FOMC and Board of Governors) next month. Christine Lagarde admitted last week that it was far too premature to consider an easing of monetary support, in the context of a recovery that is still “uncertain”. At the heart of the past week, the US markets were going through an air gap, while the signs of inflationary pressures multiplied, before resuming with the publication of the Minutes, which reassured the trading rooms.
“The Fed has regularly repeated that it would warn the markets” very upstream “of any change in monetary policy.” Very early “can therefore assume a minimum of two quarters. Excluding unexpected scenarios, such as the appearance of vaccine-resistant variants, substantial progress should have been made on the price front but also on the labor market by the end of 2021. Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed considers that the unemployment rate could have returned to around 4% by the end of the year.” notes Alexandre Baradez (IG France), who completes, for the European side:
“We do not see why the ECB would keep such an accommodating posture while deconfinements are linked in the euro zone and vaccination is having its effects on health systems … but we do not see the urgency to toughen up either. before the Fed with a slightly lagged economic cycle. “
In terms of statistics, the easing of health restrictions is starting to bear fruit: in May, private sector activity recorded its strongest growth in more than three years in the euro zone (to 56.9 after 53.8 in April ). In France, private sector activity also recorded its second consecutive month of growth in May and even accelerated (to 57 points, after 51.6 in April).
No major figure is on the agenda on Monday.
At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1,2200$ about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The crossing of the upper limit of a former bearish channel is now fully validated, by the increase in volatility in particular on Friday, April 23, and by the consecutive crossing, in the wake, without any form of hesitation, of the average mobile at 100 days (in orange). At marubozu black traced Friday April 30 came to succeed the marubozu white of equivalent magnitude of May 07, already fully retraced … Testifying to the very short-term nervousness on the currency pair. Neutral opinion proposed pending the affirmation of a directional. The 100-day moving average (in orange) is also well established horizontally.
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the price of the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between the support at 1.2045 USD and the resistance at 1.2210 USD.
