“EU Prioritizes Brazil, Chile, Nigeria and Kazakhstan in Geopolitical Strategy to Contain Russia and China”

Brazil, Chile, Nigeria and Kazakhstan are four key “priority countries” that the EU wants to keep an eye on in its efforts against Russia and to contain China, according to an internal memo seen by EURACTIV.

“We find ourselves in a competitive geopolitical environment: not just a battle of narratives, but also a battle of offers,” read the document, circulated by the EU Diplomatic Service (EEAS) earlier this week.

“We need to improve our offering and expand our relationships with them,” it said.

EU foreign ministers are expected to present the strategy document entitled “EU Action Plan on the Geopolitical Consequences of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine for Third Countries” at their regular meeting in Luxembourg on Monday (24 April) as part of the Union’s response on the Russian war in Ukraine will be discussed.

The choice of countries seems obvious, as each of the four selected countries is a driving force in its respective region.

Brazil and Chile are increasingly seen as desirable options for Europe’s diversification into resource-rich Latin America, which a senior EU diplomat said is widely seen as the region “most in line with our values ​​and aspirations.”

Nigeria, meanwhile, is an economic powerhouse in West Africa, poised to overtake China as the world’s second most populous country by 2100.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has reemerged as an influential actor in the region, adopting a more assertive stance in its relations with Moscow and the West. In addition, Kazakhstan has vast oil and gas reserves in Central Asia that can help decouple itself from Russian energy sources.

Fourteen months into the Ukraine war, the EU is struggling to maintain coherent support for Ukraine while increasingly trying to offer an alternative to the Russian and Chinese narratives in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

In addition to potential trade deals, the document mainly highlights what the EU can offer these four countries in the areas of energy, migration, economic development or security coordination.

Brazil and Chile

The document sees an opportunity for Brazil with the recent change of power from the far-right nationalist Jair Bolsonaro to the left-wing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

“The current government is showing signs of willingness to increase cooperation,” says the country analysis of Brazil.

Brazil wants “to be recognized and treated as a global player” and is keen to “improve EU market access for agricultural products,” the document said.

However, the document also states that the EU is “concerned” about some of Lula’s statements. Lula recently not only threatened to renegotiate the Mercosur agreement, but also revealed protectionist tendencies. Lula said it “could get protectionist” on deindustrialization.

The EU also expresses concern in the report about “China’s footprint” in Brazil Application to join an international agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The document cites trade as one way for the EU to engage, stressing that moving forward on the long-stalled EU-Mercosur deal with South American countries “will be key.”

“A structure to strengthen engagement is already in place, as the EU has an existing strategic partnership that can be revitalized,” the document said, which also likely references the union’s new EU-Latin America strategy, the next week to be presented.

Chile, which also recently elected a left-wing leader in Gabriel Boric, is seen as an ally in green politics and a “strong voice in Ukraine” despite the country’s “extreme left challenging trade deals.”

The memo acknowledges that the EU should try to “reduce China’s growing influence in Chile” as the country wants to see the EU “as an alternative to the US-China dilemma”.

The conclusion of a tariff-cutting economic agreement between the EU and Chile, which has been in the works since December but has not yet been ratified, could be a step towards bringing the country closer together, the memo says. However, Chile has expressed “anger at the long and complex internal EU procedures” that have so far delayed the deal.

Kazakhstan

The EU and the five Central Asian countries last year reaffirmed their intention to increase cooperation overall as unease grew over the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the region.

Regarding Kazakhstan, the memo describes these changes as “significant” and notes that the country actively wants more EU cooperation, more high-level visits by EU officials and “EU public support for its reform agenda”.

One of the EU’s top priorities would be to “ensure that international sanctions imposed on Kazakhstan against Russia are not circumvented.” The document cites the “adverse economic consequences of Kazakhstan’s anti-circumvention policy” as a challenge, which the EU should address in its cooperation with Astana.

The EU could also support the country, which wants to avoid having its crude oil shipped through Russia, and encourage it to “export more oil to the EU,” the memo said.

It is stressed that “a lot is currently being done” by the EU, for example through the Global Gateway Initiative, “where transport connectivity will be crucial, and on critical raw materials, where a memorandum of understanding has been signed.”

Nigeria

Regarding Nigeria, the memo stresses that “more high-level political commitment, EU support for some of Nigeria’s ambitions on the global stage, and an expanded EU approach to migration that also includes mobility” are needed.

Nigeria is aiming for “more legal migration opportunities” and less stringent visa requirements, which would make facilitating legal entry into the EU a key issue for the country, while for the EU the focus is less on legal migration and instead “particularly on return and Readmission” would lie.

The memo cites as a particular challenge “the EU’s refusal to provide financial support for new gas projects because gas was not listed as a ‘transition fuel’.”