EU leaders meet with Tunisian President Saied to discuss major migration deal

Prime Minister Rutte is in Tunisia today to discuss the possibilities for a major migration deal with EU partners. Together with Italian Prime Minister Meloni and President Von der Leyen of the European Commission, he will talk to Tunisian President Saied.

Saied set the tone for the negotiations a day before the arrival of the EU leaders, by warning that Tunisia does not want to become Europe’s border guard and that a solution must not be at the expense of his country.

Four questions about what’s at stake:

They want Tunis to reduce migration to the EU and to receive returned migrants, even if they are not Tunisians. Because the European countries think the migration pressure is too high. For example, there are between January and early June around 50,000 migrants sailed to Italy via the Mediterranean Sea, considerably more than in the same period in 2022.

European leaders not only want fewer migrants to cross the border, but also want EU countries to be able to send people back more easily if it turns out that they have no chance of being granted asylum status. According to the European migration and asylum agreements made this week, it will be possible to send them back to the country of departure instead of their country of origin, which in many cases means Tunisia. But then you need cooperation from Tunisia, because migrants are not welcome there either at the moment.

Like Turkey – before it signed a migration deal with the EU in 2016 – Tunisia is now an important transit country for people wanting to get to Europe. Half of the migrants who landed in Italy this year departed from Tunisia. To a large extent this has to do with the geographical location. For example, the Tunisian city of Sfax is only 187 kilometers from the Italian island of Lampedusa.

In short: Brussels also wants a Tunisia deal in addition to the Turkey deal, to close another hole in the wall against migrants.

Tunisia has been struggling for years with a very weak economy. Poverty and food shortages affect the population. Companies are rapidly going bankrupt. Due to the high prices and unemployment, the government fears a popular uprising. After all, we are talking about the same country from which the Arab Spring began to spread in 2011 with such a revolution.

That is why it is important for President Saied that he receives USD 1.9 billion from the International Monetary Fund. That money is frozen because of a conflict between his government and the International Monetary Fund. If this is not resolved, not only the crisis but also the political unrest in the country will grow.

The visit of Rutte, Meloni and Von der Leyen can offer a solution. Meloni has expressed hope that the meeting will lead to a reopening of dialogue between Saied and the IMF so that the large loan can still go through. In addition, the president of Tunisia is probably counting on a few billion euros of European support as a reward for a possible deal.

In this explainer we explain why the discussion about migration in the EU is still going on:

If the EU succeeds in striking a deal with Tunisia and the country accepts returned people, the chances for some migrants to remain on European soil after the crossing seem to be dwindling. Asylum centers will be set up at the external borders of the EU, where it will be decided quickly who has a chance of asylum and who does not. People with no chance are locked up in detention centers and would then be sent back to Tunisia.

There are still uncertainties. The European Parliament can still reject the migration and asylum agreement. The question is how safe Tunisia is as a host country for returned migrants from sub-Saharan Africa. Interest groups warn that the country is becoming more and more dangerous for this group.

Ultimately, therefore, the agreement must be negotiated with the Tunisian president. More European leaders will be involved than just Rutte, Meloni and Von der Leyen.