Agricultural production in the community will decline and producers will be poorer, the organizations say
Dr Madeleine Vasileva of the Center for Food Chain Risk Assessment publishes opinions of major European agriculture-related organizations on the pros and cons of the two Green Deal strategies “From the farm to the table” and for biodiversity. They are also supported by analyzes of research and agricultural institutes. The big gap – an impact assessment carried out by the European Commission on the implementation of “Farm to Fork” remains.
The organizations are calling for Brussels to finally do its job before it is too late.
Overall, the analyzes show that with the implementation of the strategy, European agriculture is decreasing in production and farmers are becoming poorer following the requirements. There is a high probability that European farmers will export their production to third countries, the EU will become a net importer and the good model of European agriculture will be wiped out. Brussels’ insufficient requirements for the import of agricultural goods from third countries make farmers feel uncompetitive. The consequences are also in increasing food prices.
We are publishing Dr. Madeleine Vasileva’s article with significant abbreviations (read the full report HERE)
“The Joint Research Center of the European Union (Joint Research Center – JRC – the science and knowledge service of the European Commission) published in the summer of 2021. report on the impact on agriculture of four selected targets of the Biodiversity Strategy (BDS) and Farm to Fork (F2F) – the two strategies to overhaul agriculture and food production as part of the Green Deal. The European Union (EU) agricultural union COPA AND COGECA warn that the policy will lead to an unprecedented reduction in agricultural capacity.
In the opinion of COPA and COGECA, rarely has a report so carefully avoided pointing out the consequences: whatever the scenarios considered, the effect of these strategies will be an unprecedented reduction in the EU’s production capacity and the incomes of its farmers. Most of the reduction in agricultural emissions achieved by these strategies will be wiped out by sustainability leakage to third countries as a result of this loss of production.
For more than a year, all stakeholders representing the agricultural sector in Brussels have been calling for an impact assessment of the Farm to Fork strategy. The agricultural community, aware of the challenges and necessary transitions, was willing to seriously discuss the topic. However, faced with the Commission’s silence and failure to conduct a study, the subject itself has become a political issue.
Read more: NAZ survey: 26% of grain producers say they will stop operations if eco-pressure increases
Copa and Leather: All sectors show a 5% to 15% drop in production
The EU’s Joint Research Center urges that their report should not be seen as an “impact assessment”. They go on to emphasize that this paper is not a comprehensive assessment, as some targets were not or only partially considered, and the model used has certain limitations for assessing the complex effects of the targets discussed.
Given its content, Copa and Cogeca welcome this report and agree with the authors that “the lessons learned from this report are important from a policy perspective”. Whichever scenario is considered, all sectors show a decline in production of between 5% and 15%, with livestock sectors being the most affected.
Changes in production would reduce net export positions for cereals, pigmeat and poultry and worsen the EU’s trade deficit for oilseeds, fruits and vegetables, beef, sheep and goatmeat. Meanwhile, regardless of the scenario, producer prices show a net increase of around 10% with a negative impact on the income of most farmers.
However, the most important point of the report from the perspective of COPA and COGECA is about the expected effects of this strategy: the report shows that the Farm to Fork and Biodiversity strategies combined with the new CAP could help to achieve of a 28.4% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector by 2030. This has led some environmental NGOs to say that these strategies will deliver the expected result. However, this is not a foregone conclusion.
One key finding of the report is that more than half of the expected reductions in greenhouse gases in all scenarios are offset by equivalent increases in greenhouse gas emissions in third countries!
In response to the report, Pekka Pessonen, Secretary General of COPA-COGECA, said: “This report, even with all the precautions to be taken in terms of its methodology and scope, confirms much of our analysis. This new CAP will allow farmers to make the necessary transitions to increase our sustainability, we will break out of the “status quo”, as some Brussels-based NGOs like to say.
Strategies such as Farm to Fork or Biodiversity will create a widening gap in practices and competitiveness with our international competitors.
If we do not want to organize the transfer of part of our agriculture to third countries, the European Union must be as ambitious in its trade policy as in its internal strategies. Today, this is simply not the case. This large disparity will be intolerable for our farmers and cooperatives in the long run.”
For COPA and COGECA, the conclusions of this study should alert stakeholders far beyond the agricultural community and create public debate because these policies are so important to our strategic autonomy, consumer prices or the relocation of our agriculture. The authors of the report call for further analysis of targets and models, COPA and COGECA support this call and look forward to reading and commenting on the conclusions of this key report in the coming months.”
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