Eu Enlargement 2030: Western Balkans, Moldova, and Ukraine Joining – Impact and Challenges

Skeptics are horrified by the possibility that six countries from the Western Balkans, as well as Moldova and Ukraine, will join the EU in 2030. Thus, the Community will grow to 35 members, and otherwise everything will remain the same – from the need for unanimity on important foreign policy issues to agricultural policy.

It is clear to all of them that it will not come to that, notes ARD, remembering that the dates will hardly be met.

But the situation shows the pressure for change that the EU has if it really wants to accept new countries. Ukraine, for its part, has repeatedly said that it would like to join the Community by 2030. “We don’t even need two years to fulfill the conditions,” German public law media quoted the Prime Minister as saying. Dennis Schmigal.

What is the EU’s interest in enlargement?

There is no doubt that the EU has a geostrategic interest in enlargement. It is about a rapprochement with countries that have not been specified so far – some even call them “grey areas” – before they fall more heavily under the influence of the Kremlin or other powers such as China. The European Council itself speaks of “geostrategic investment” by the Europeans.

But it is already clear what problems the Community will have if it is bound by the principle of unanimity in decisions. At this time, ARD remembers how Viktor Orbán in December last year would have prevented the accession talks with Ukraine, when this was prevented by the invitation sent to the Prime Minister of the -Hungary to go and drink coffee at that very moment.

Most opinions tend to rule out the principle of unanimity. Last autumn, Germany and France came out with a joint proposal to keep the principle valid only in special cases related to security and defense policy, and instead to working with a “qualified majority”, recalls ARD.

Currently, it is achieved if 55 percent of member states agree, and if the population of these states is at least 65 percent of the total. More specifically, this means the following: it is needed by 15 of the 27 member states, and by 293 million inhabitants. According to the German-French proposal, the two quotas should be 60 percent each, ie 17 countries, but still about 271 million inhabitants, defining the German public law media.

Should the European Commissioners stay 27?

It is constantly debated whether the number of EU commissioners should be reduced. Currently, each of the 27 member states is entitled to its own commissioner. And it is necessary to review the number of MEPs and their distribution by country, ARD says.

Until Brexit in January 2020, there were 751 MPs, then they became 705, and after the elections in 2024 they will be 720. it must be distributed in a new way among the member countries – a it would, however, mean that some of the previous 27 would give up some positions.

The idea of ​​gradual accession

The idea of ​​gradual accession, in which new members first gain some political rights or access to the EU’s internal market before becoming full participants in the Community, is also controversial. In this way, some difficult conflicts can be avoided, but on the other hand, for the new members, it will only be a kind of “partial participation”.

This “Europe at different speeds” is facing criticism from both sides, notes ARD – both among the members and among the applicants for admission.

It’s also about money

The question of the distribution of money is particularly sensitive. A Council of Europe internal bureau document from last fall said enlargement would mean each current member state paying more and getting less.

The accession of Ukraine, with its 44 million inhabitants and the largest area in the Community, would cause a particularly large change in responsibilities and in the distribution of funds. The media mentions in this connection the amount between 110 and 136 billion euros over a period of seven years, which would be about 0.1 percent of the EU’s GDP each year.

The Ukrainian government, for its part, says EU membership will bring more than it costs. “Our market, our defense forces, Ukrainian raw materials and minerals, as well as other areas could significantly contribute to security and economy,” said Prime Minister Denis Shmigal. At the same time, it should be noted, that after joining in 2004, the new countries that were members of the Community increased their foreign trade more than three times – thanks to the integration in the internal market, points out ARD.

Some businesses are worried now

The extent to which Ukraine’s accession raises concern in some businesses has recently increased at the Polish-Ukraine border, but also elsewhere in Europe, including farmers’ protests in Brussels.

Among other things, European farmers fear they could be displaced by cheap and substandard Ukrainian goods after the EU removed tariffs on agricultural imports from Ukraine to help the war-torn country help economically.

However, the debate on the subject certainly has no way of giving benefits before the European elections, in connection with which it is postponed for the period after, ARD concludes .

Thomas Spiekhofen (ARD) | Bilyana Mihailova (editor)