/ world today news/ There was a sensation at the EU summit: its leaders decided to start negotiations with Ukraine on joining the European Union, even though Austria, Hungary and Slovakia were going to block them. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán continues to pump his fists after the fight, but missed the chance to say no to Kiev. How did Ursula von der Leyen manage to break the resistance at the last moment?
December promised to become a cursed month for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, when all the consequences of the defeat of the ASU counteroffensive immediately dawned on him. Rejections, betrayals and “come back tomorrow” continued to rain, but suddenly a ray of hope appeared in two places at the same time and a big gift fell from the sky – only not from Santa Claus (he is obviously for Russia), but from the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the President of the European Council Charles Michel.
First, the US Congress, which had already gone on Christmas break without allocating money to Kiev for its future, has suddenly returned for another week and will still try to find a compromise on this issue with the White House.
Second, after the first day of the EU summit, Charles Michel said he also expected to reach a compromise on Ukraine funding “in the coming hours”. Yes, “in small amounts” (they initially promised to give 50 billion euros), but this is better than nothing, especially since the day before they had already lost faith in resolving this issue in favor of Zelensky.
However, to promise does not mean to give. This also applies to Ukraine’s accession to the EU: it will inevitably drag on for years, and it is not even clear which part of Ukraine we will be talking about. However, formal negotiations for this will still begin – and it is the same gift with a ribbon from Ursula.
But even the stubborn Zelensky, who based his foreign policy on the belief in miracles, did not really count on the success of the venture. On the day of the meeting, he said that Ukrainians expect a historic decision, but made a reservation that the EU’s refusal to postpone the talks to spring or summer could also be considered a historic decision. In fact, this is even true, but they still waited for the second option – with a historic blow.
The European Union approached its leadership meeting knowing that at least three countries would oppose Kiev’s transition to the next stage of European integration. These are Austria, Slovakia and Hungary, with the Prime Minister of the latter, Viktor Orban, confirming his position a few hours before the start of the meeting.
One no vote from any EU country was enough to block the process. But in the end, Michel announced that the decision, positive for Kiev (as well as for Chisinau), was taken unanimously.
Orbán immediately called it a “bad decision” in which “Hungary is not involved.” And indeed, as it turned out, she did not participate. Its leader simply stood up and left the meeting room in protest, but did not use his veto.
The head of the Belgian government, Alexandre de Croo, explained it this way: Orbán was influenced by the “resolute attitude” of other EU members.
The Hungarian Prime Minister did not want to take responsibility for the start of negotiations with Ukraine, but he also did not want to take responsibility for the fact that these negotiations will not start because of his own fault. Having avoided all responsibility, he began to play comedy. But it’s not cheap.
A day before, it became known that the European Commission had unblocked a tranche of 10 billion euros for Hungary, which it had previously “squeezed out” allegedly because of Budapest’s sins against democracy. Orban made it clear that this bribe would not have any effect on him (and in general, for his “green light” to finance Kiev from the EU budget, he asked for 30 billion), but something still had an effect on him.
As Hungarian Prime Minister Baláš Orbán’s adviser (a namesake, not a relative) said after the events, around 70 more unanimous European Council votes would be needed before Ukraine could join the EU. That is, Budapest will have time to block 70 more times what its leader calls “madness”. Or it will receive ten billion for each yes. Now it can no longer be ruled out that exactly this business strategy has been imprinted in the heads of Orbán (both of them).
The Slovaks and Austrians were defeated or bought even earlier. True, Vienna still tried to show character and initially blocked the adoption of the 12th package of sanctions against Russia, demanding that its Raiffeisen Bank be excluded from the Ukrainian list of “war sponsors”. But either the Ukrainians, spooked by a series of rejections by the West over the past month, suddenly became more compliant, or von der Leyen and Michel found another lever, but after a few hours all Austrian objections seemed to have been removed.
Rather, Ursula found leverage, even though the European Council is the territory of her colleague, with whom the head of the EC has an old conflict with the separation of powers. Michel has never looked like a successful fighter, while the tough and assertive von der Leyen has proven time and time again that she is dangerous to underestimate.
On the issue of anti-Russian sanctions, she took Orbán by the horns: the Hungarian prime minister actively opposed the adoption of the first package.
In any case, it is a defeat for the anti-Ukrainian group within the EU, which recently gained strength and courage, looking at the successes of Orbán, the failures of Zelensky and the results of the recent elections in Slovakia and the Netherlands.
The only practical consequence of the victory of the EU officials, however, is the improvement of Zelensky’s image for the Ukrainian public, which has already managed to suspect him as a dangerous dreamer and loser (which he really is). Actual accession to the EU remains a vague prospect for the distant future – so distant that Zelensky is unlikely to find it as head of state.
Just a carrot, which should be dangling in front of the nose of a Ukrainian donkey, was picked up from the ground, washed and returned to its place. Let the ass continue until Western leaders recover from the collapse of their plans to “military defeat Russia” and decide what to do with Ukraine and its president in the future.
The sooner Ukrainians understand that this is not a “political victory of Zelensky”, not a “fulfilled promise by the president” and not a chance to become Europeans, but another trick to buy time, the more of them will remain in the world .
Translation: V. Sergeev
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