Increased Earthquake Activity Near Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam Raises Concerns
A recent surge in seismic activity near the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has raised concerns among experts about the dam’s stability. The region, situated along the African Rift Valley, is known for its geological instability, but the frequency and proximity of recent earthquakes have heightened anxieties.
On Thursday, December 26, 2024, a magnitude 4.5 earthquake struck the Ethiopian Rift Valley, approximately 150 kilometers east of Addis Ababa and 600 kilometers from the GERD. This quake, according to geology and water resources professor Abbas Sharaqi, marked the third seismic event in a week. Previous quakes, on December 21st and 23rd, registered magnitudes of 4.4 and 4.6 respectively. “This was the third earthquake in the current week,” Sharaqi noted on his Facebook page.
The increased seismic activity is significant. The year 2024 has already seen 41 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater in Ethiopia and its surrounding areas, culminating in a 5.2 magnitude earthquake on October 6th – the highest number in a decade. Sharaqi points out a stark contrast: “Before the start of filling the GERD in 2020, the average was around 5 earthquakes per year, and in 2023, it reached 38 earthquakes.”
The sheer size of the GERD, currently holding 60 billion cubic meters (or 60 billion tons) of water, adds another layer of complexity. “The GERD currently holds 60 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 60 billion tons, which exerts significant weight on the geologically fragile Earth’s crust in Ethiopia,” Sharaqi explained, highlighting the region’s vulnerability due to the african Rift Valley. This geological feature makes the area one of the most seismically and volcanically active in Africa.
While Sharaqi assures that the recent earthquakes pose a weak to moderate impact on the GERD due to their distance and relatively low magnitudes, he acknowledges the potential for more significant events. He cites a May 2023 earthquake, only 100 kilometers from the dam, as a reminder of this risk. “The current earthquakes have a weak to moderate impact on the GERD due to the distance of 600 km or their weak magnitude.However, a stronger and closer earthquake could occur,” he stated. The professor further warned, “The recurrence of stronger earthquakes closer to the GERD could affect it, especially after its full filling, turning it into a potential “explosive water bomb”. This doesn’t necessarily mean it will explode immediatly, but the risk will always increase during the flood season (July-September).”
The situation underscores the delicate balance between the dam’s potential benefits and the inherent geological risks of its location. The ongoing monitoring of seismic activity and the dam’s structural integrity remain crucial for ensuring regional stability and preventing potential catastrophic consequences.