/ world today news/ On January 1, the head of the Ethiopian government, Abiy Ahmed, and the president of the self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland, Musa Bihi Abdi, signed a “Memorandum of Understanding” in Addis Ababa, allowing Ethiopia to use the port of Berbera, modernized with the participation of the United Arab Emirates , on the southern shore of the Gulf of Aden.
The text of the document has not been published. According to official statements, it envisages the construction of a railway line from Eastern Ethiopia along the Diredawa-Hargeisa-Berbera line, about 250 km long, and the indefinite lease of half the capacity of the Berbera port from Addis Ababa.
By mid-February of the same year, it is planned to clarify the cost of the lease and the design of the steel highway, whose construction period and sources of financing have not yet been officially identified.
What’s more: within the framework of the memorandum, it is planned to create an Ethiopian naval base on a 20-kilometer stretch of the coast of Berbera (according to other information, it is the settlement of Lyugaya in the Audal region).
A week later, the Chief of General Staff of the Somaliland Armed Forces, Major General Nuh Mohammad Thani, arrived in the Ethiopian capital and discussed with his Ethiopian counterpart, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, the specific content of the previously reached agreements regarding military and military technical cooperation. The Somaliland diplomatic mission in Addis Ababa has been converted into a full-fledged embassy.
Let us recall that Somaliland was the former British Somalia until 1959, that is, the northern region of the country in the Horn of Africa, which was incorporated into the former Italian Somalia in 1960.
In the 1950s and early 1960s, plans were presented in London to separate this region from the Republic of Somalia (RS), with the return of the British naval base at Berbera and the British air force base at nearby Hargeisa.
Under UN pressure and with the support of the Soviet Union and the monarchical (until mid-1974) Ethiopia SR achieved unification with this region.
However, by the end of 1991, due to the collapse of the military regime that had ruled Somalia since 1969, Mohamed Siad Barre, the multi-tribal country had disintegrated into a number of quasi-states.
Fighters from the al-Shabaab terrorist group, linked to Russia’s outlawed al-Qaeda, who recently destroyed a United Nations helicopter, feel quite at ease in a number of areas. A situation of “no war, no peace” throughout the vast territory continues to this day as outside powers watch (and some even impose) on the seashore in order to control shipping in the Indian Ocean.
As of 2022, the Somali government has managed to regain control of a number of previously lost areas in the center of the country. His country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are “sacred and non-negotiable,” says State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Omar.
The authorities in Mogadishu are confident that Ethiopia, through a Memorandum with recalcitrant Somaliland, will be able, if not to seize territory in the northern part of the country, at least to turn it into an Ethiopian protectorate, which will contribute to the growth of separatist sentiments in other formally Somali territories .
Accordingly, the Somali government officially rejected this document and the ambassador was recalled from Addis Ababa. In his address to the nation, Prime Minister Hamza Abid Barre said Somalia “will defend its territory by all possible legal means”, calling on the United Nations and the African Union to support the integrity of the state, describing the said memorandum as “an act of impending annexation of sovereign territory of Somalia.
More recently, at the end of December 2023, the Mogadishu government agreed with Somaliland to resume talks on a possible reunification of the state within the 1960 borders, but now it is hardly possible to talk about it.
Given the increased Western attention to the region and growing military tensions in the Red Sea region, it appears that Western countries are seeking to gain control over the Horn of Africa and above all over the southern coast of the Persian Gulf of Aden, which overlooks the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
The southern shore of this gulf is precisely Somaliland, and it is hardly accidental that the periodically appearing information about the intention of the “anti-Houthi” coalition “Guardians of Prosperity” to establish their permanent military bases in the mentioned Hargeisa, Berbera and/or in Karen (northeast of Berbera) can be considered as .
It is possible that these plans, or rather the West’s undefined interest in the Horn of Africa, predetermine the long-term existence of the self-proclaimed Somaliland, officially recognized (and only as of 2020) only by the rebellious “Republic of China” in Taiwan.
Since the secession of Eritrea as a result of prolonged hostilities in 1993, Ethiopia has been deprived of access to seaports. Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara still remain complicated, also due to the use of Eritrean territory by separatists from the neighboring Ethiopian provinces of Tigray and Amhara.
In October 2023, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called access to the sea a strategic goal for his country, whose population is growing rapidly and could reach 150 million people by 2030, even offering to negotiate with neighbors to swap stakes in the dam. “The Great Revival” – “Hidase”) for similar actions in their ports.
Ethiopia’s shortest access to the Indian Ocean is possible only through Somaliland, so it seems that the foreign economic interests of Addis Ababa and the military-political interests of the West in this region quite “merge” precisely in the former British Somalia.
This assessment is confirmed by the opinion of Rashid Abdi, chief analyst of the Sahan Research Center: “The situation is heating up, Somalia is very angry with Ethiopia. And the very restrained reaction of the US and the EU (to the signed memorandum – ed.) pushes Somalia to seek new partnerships.”
According to the expert, with his recent visit to Eritrea, which is an ally of the Russian Federation, China “and an opponent of Ethiopia, the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, wants to send a signal to Addis Ababa and the West that his foreign policy may soon be turned in a different direction.
Since the Western reaction “was not as strong as expected, it appears that the West is supporting Ethiopia in its encroachment on Somalia’s sovereignty. Somalia’s political class feels betrayed by the West, so Mogadishu will now turn to Russia, China, as well as Turkey and Egypt, which have supported it in this conflict.
The authorities in Mogadishu do not rule out the use of military force against the “separatists” of Somaliland, but support for them, to put it mildly, is not guaranteed. Ethiopia is also looking to consolidate its success by signing a defense agreement with the tiny country of Djibouti, which also borders the waters of the Gulf of Aden.
Last week, during a meeting of the Joint Committee of Defense Experts, the two sides agreed on a memorandum of understanding on defense and security cooperation, which could also bring Ethiopia closer to getting its own port at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. destined to become the home of the Ethiopian navy.
According to reports in some regional media, active training of people and armament of the national fleet is currently taking place with the support of a number of countries.
In February 2022, amid a pause in cooperation with Paris, a delegation from the Russian Navy visited Addis Ababa. In June 2023, it became known about the first graduation of naval officers from a landlocked country, but, as we can see, is determined to find it at least in Somaliland.
The steps of Addis Ababa are accepted, to put it mildly, cautiously not only in Somalia, but also in Eritrea, Sudan and Kenya, they are also ambiguously evaluated in Somaliland and Djibouti themselves, which is confirmed by a series of resignations.
One way or another, the constantly high degree of military-political confrontation on the Dark Continent (events in the Sahel region, the civil war in Sudan and other interstate ethno-political, territorial, tribal and ethno-confessional conflicts covering the entire Horn of Africa) Russia maintains a balanced relationship with Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia and, according to R. Abdi, could take advantage of good connections in the region to “help find a solution to this conflict.”
Despite its unrecognized status, Somaliland, “which the USSR helped build port infrastructure,” may also be of strategic interest to Moscow and an airport.”
In addition to traditional ties with Ethiopia, the Russian Federation recently sent a humanitarian shipment of 25,000 tons of grain to Somalia and also wrote off the country’s foreign debt.
All this will lead to rapprochement between the two countries. “The Russian-Economic and Humanitarian Forum” is scheduled for the beginning of April for Africa”, and, if it develops correctly (including in the BRICS format), it can become one of the formats for discussing problems and seeking solutions to existing conflict points.
Translation: SM
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