Daily Economic News 2023-10-05 13:26:58
Reporter Zeng Zijian Editor Zhao Yun
In the past September, the overall performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets was sluggish.
Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index shrank and fluctuated around the 3,100-point mark, while the Hong Kong stock market hit a new low in the past year.
In the past month, which ETFs have bucked the trend and strengthened, and which ETFs have continued to decline? In the upcoming October market, which products are expected to stand out?
Today, the “ETF Monthly Market Report for September” will give you a comprehensive review.
Three categories of ETFs bucked the trend and strengthened
Due to the overall weak market, the overall performance of ETF products was not satisfactory in September. According to wind statistics, among 821 ETF products, only about 160 products achieved positive returns in September, and the ETF market median was -2.01%. It can be seen that the market situation throughout September is not friendly to ETF holders. In this environment, three types of products have achieved good performance.
First, the best performer in September was the coal energy ETF.
Among them, the Cathay CSI Coal ETF rose 9.33% in September, the largest increase among all ETF products. Secondly, China Universal CSI Energy ETF and GF CSI All Energy ETF both increased by 7.43%. The above three ETFs are also the only three products that have increased by more than 7% in September.
It is worth noting that the above three products track different indexes, so the ETF performance is also different. Among them, Cathay CSI Coal ETF (515230) tracks the CSI Coal Index, and its constituent stocks are all coal sector stocks, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yongtai Energy, etc.
China Universal CSI Energy ETF tracks the CSI Energy Index, and GF CSI All Energy ETF tracks the CSI All Energy Index. Its constituent stocks include not only coal sector stocks, but also Sinopec, PetroChina and other stocks.
In addition, in terms of scale, the latest scale of Cathay CSI Coal ETF is 1.18559 billion units, while the other two products are smaller in scale.
In the September market situation, pharmaceutical-related ETF products were in the second tier. Since there are many related indexes in the pharmaceutical field, there are also many related ETF products.
Generally speaking, the best-performing product is the Huatai-PineBridge Vaccine ETF Fund (159646), which rose 6.84% in September and tracks the National Securities Vaccine and Biotechnology Index.
ETF products tracking the same index include Cathay Vaccine ETF (159643), Merchants Vaccine Leader ETF (561920), Bosera Vaccine Biotech ETF (561710), etc. Their September gains were around 4.4%. However, such ETFs are generally smaller in size.
Large-scale ETF products in the pharmaceutical field are mainly innovative drug ETFs. For example, the latest share size of Yinhua Innovative Drug ETF (159992) exceeded 10 billion, with an increase of 5.1% in September. The GF Innovative Drug ETF (515120), with a share size of nearly 6 billion, rose 5.53% in September.
In fact, judging from the recent performance of pharmaceutical stocks, some leading stocks are showing signs of recovery. For example, Hengrui Medicine rebounded by 7.59% in September, while WuXi AppTec, the leading innovative drug, has risen for three consecutive months.
In addition to the two major categories of ETFs, coal energy and pharmaceuticals, another category of ETFs that continues to grow is dividend ETFs.
Since September, Huatai-PineBridge Dividend ETF (510880) has increased by 2.77%, Boshi CSI Dividend ETF (515890) has increased by 2.16%, and Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) has increased by 2.15%. In addition, there are China Merchants Securities Dividend ETF, E Fund Dividend ETF, etc., all with an increase of more than 2%.
In addition to dividend ETFs, bank ETFs have also performed well recently. In fact, in a sense, bank stocks can also be regarded as an alternative dividend ETF because their general dividend indicators are also good. The pursuit of high dividends and high dividend rates is an investment strategy that is very popular among funds in a weak market. Looking at the index constituent stocks tracked by dividend ETFs, we can actually see some slow bull and long bull stocks.
For example, companies such as Shandong Expressway, Heilan Home, and Ninghu Expressway are stocks that most people look down upon in the bull market. But amid weakness, these companies have performed admirably.
To sum up, in the market situation in September, the best-performing coal energy ETFs and the dividend ETFs favored by big funds all belong to the category of “the strong will always be strong”. As for pharmaceutical ETFs, they are finally showing signs of recovery after a long period of decline.
Can these two types of ETFs survive?
In the September market, the worst-performing ETF was the product tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index. Such products fell by more than 9% in September.
In fact, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 6.19% in September, but the ETFs tracking the index fell by more than 9%, indicating that such ETF products had obvious tracking errors.
Among the above-mentioned ETF products, the net value per unit of Dacheng Hengsheng Technology ETF is only 0.5078 yuan, and it has lost 49.22% in more than two years since its establishment; the net value per unit of Harvest Hengsheng Technology ETF is 0.5086 yuan, and it has also lost 49.14% since its establishment.
However, it is worth mentioning that although the Hong Kong stock market has been bleak in recent years, judging from historical trends, it may have reached the extreme limit of a bear market. As far as the Hang Seng Index is concerned, from 2020 to 2022, the Hang Seng Index has fallen for three consecutive years, which is the longest consecutive falling cycle in history. Since this year, the Hang Seng Index has fallen by 12% cumulatively, and there are only the last three months of 2023. If it still cannot form a strong rebound, the Hang Seng Index will fall for four consecutive years from 2020 to 2023.
This will be the first time since the establishment of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It is foreseeable that this kind of “witnessing history” bear market, on the other hand, happens to be an excellent layout opportunity.
More importantly, by the time everyone sees a bargain-hunting opportunity, the real opportunity may have been missed. Therefore, during the recent continuous decline, funds have been using ETFs to buy the bottom of Hong Kong stocks. According to Wind statistics, the share of E Fund Hengsheng Technology ETF has increased by 4.282 billion shares since September, and the latest share size has reached 40.5 billion shares.
In addition, the largest increases in share size include the Wells Fargo Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (159792), which increased by 1.788 billion shares, and the GF China Concept Internet ETF (159605), which increased by 1.66 billion shares.
Finally, the second type of ETFs that are expected to be “extremely successful” are ETFs related to AI-related games, animation, cloud computing, software and other themes.
This type of ETF was an absolute market star in the first half of this year. However, products such as China Gaming ETF (159869), Cathay Gaming ETF (516010), Huatai-Berry Gaming and Animation ETF (516770) have experienced declines of more than 20% in the past three months. In the past September, such products fell by more than 8% in a single month.
However, in late September, the market for the AI sector seemed to show signs of rebound. For example, Kunlun Wanwei had a 20CM daily limit on September 22. In addition, star stocks in the first half of the year, such as Zhongji InnoLight, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communications, and Cambridge Technology, all rebounded significantly.
Once the rebound continues into the post-holiday market, and the effect of buying up rather than buying down in the market begins to appear, then AI-related game animation ETFs, cloud computing, and big data ETFs are expected to reverse the trend of continuous decline in the past three months.
Cover image source: Visual China-VCG111361568739
2023-10-05 05:26:00
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