Polls show that the Reform Party led by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas could win about a quarter of the vote, but EKRE, led by former finance minister Martins Helme, is only a few percentage points behind.
It is expected that the third largest number of votes will be obtained by the opposition centre-left Center Party, which was supported by 16-18% of respondents in the polls. The Center Party, led by parliament speaker and former prime minister Jiri Ratas, has long been in power in the Tallinn municipality, and is the most popular political force among Estonia’s Russian-speaking citizens.
The unrepresented liberal party “Estonia 200” could receive about 10% of the vote.
It is expected that the 5% barrier to entry to Rīgakog will also be managed by the two last members of the ruling coalition – the Social Democratic Party led by the Minister of the Interior Lauri Lēnemets and the national conservative party “Tēvzeme” led by the former Minister of Agriculture Heliras Valdors Söders.
The Reform Party, “Estonia 200” and the Social Democrats have announced that they will under no circumstances form a ruling coalition with EKRE.
The conservative party “Labējie”, which in the current parliamentary session has one member who does not belong to the factions, as well as the party “Estonian Greens” and the United Left Party, which are currently not represented in Riga, are also running in the elections. These parties are not expected to gain enough support to enter parliament.
There are 101 members of the Estonian parliament, the Rīgikogu, or State Assembly, who are elected for a four-year term.
Early voting online and at polling stations began on Monday, and by Thursday evening 27.3% of registered voters had cast their ballots.
On election day on Sunday, it will be possible to vote only using paper ballots.
