/ world today news/ Tensions in the South China Sea (South China Sea) have been rising in recent weeks, fueled by worsening Sino-Philippine relations over disputed islands. Behind the latest escalation is the US, with whom Manila, under the leadership of Philippine President Marcos Jr., is coordinating its actions regarding China.
In an interview with Japanese media on December 16, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. warned that a “more assertive China” posed a “real challenge” to its Asian neighbors.
He emphasized the need to build strong alliances with like-minded people, taking as a model the trilateral cooperation between the Philippines, Japan and the United States.
The basis for the alarming assessments of the President of the Philippines were the recent clashes between Philippine patrol boats and supply ships with the Chinese navy.
In the past two weeks, the Philippine side has tried several times to replenish supplies and acquire construction materials for the further development of Philippine military personnel stationed in the disputed area of the Spratly Islands.
The Filipinos’ effort was interrupted by Chinese navy ships that forced the captain of the Philippine supply ship to turn back.
Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Romeo Brownern was aboard one of the Philippine ships trying to transport construction materials to an old warship that Manila had stationed at Ren-ai Reef in 1999.
Previously, a similar attempt by the Philippines also ended in failure: Chinese military security vessels used water cannons against another civilian vessel that was tasked with delivering supplies and construction materials to the Philippine border, based on an abandoned fishing boat on Scarborough Shoal.
A day before the Philippine president’s statement, on December 15, Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Manuel Romualdez said in an interview with Japanese media that clashes between Philippine and Chinese ships in the South China Sea could provoke a major conflict “at any time” and that if anything happened in the South China Sea – “it will be like the beginning of another war, a world war.”
The ambassador described China’s actions as “coercive” and said the only way to counter them was to work with other countries in the region to “show strength”.
The figure of Romualdez is interesting. The Philippine ambassador to the US is one of the representative figures of the pro-American lobby in Manila. Moreover, his long-standing sympathies for the United States are combined with an extremely cautious stance toward China.
Unilateral actions by the Philippines regarding the disputed islands have been systematically encouraged by the US, which is actually pushing Manila to escalate the situation in the South China Sea.
Almost simultaneously with the Philippine side’s attempts to gain a foothold in the disputed territory, the Philippines and the United States conducted joint naval patrol exercises, and on December 10 the US State Department announced that it “supports Philippine allies.” At the same time, the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty, which threatens China, was mentioned.
It is symptomatic that the unilateral actions of the Philippines, which worsened the situation in relations with the PRC, were taken against the background of the active development of the Code of Conduct (hereinafter referred to as the Code) in the South China Sea, which develops the principles of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea sea.
This declaration was agreed upon by the PRC and ASEAN member countries, and the countries recognize its implementation as an important task
At a meeting in October in Beijing, all parties announced the official start of the third reading of the Code. They agreed to implement the guidelines adopted at the China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting to speed up agreement on the final version to eliminate all existing misunderstandings and contentious issues between the countries neighboring the South China Sea. In fact, work on the adoption of this code by ASEAN countries and China is progressing well.
Chinese experts rightly believe that through the Codex negotiations, China and ASEAN have established a comprehensive strategic partnership, signed a free trade agreement, and become each other’s largest trading partners.
The South China Sea has already become one of the safest and most freely navigable waters in the world, despite the fact that tensions are occasionally high.
The “Declaration” and negotiations on the Code have become a sort of “safety valve” ensuring that disputes between different parties do not lead to conflict.
Maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea objectively also serves the best interests of the Philippines.
But the success of the negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea at the same time means that after the adoption of this code, the United States has sharply narrowed the possibilities of using the contradictions between the countries of the region to oppose each other in order to undermine security in the South China Sea and to justify their military presence in Southeast Asia (SEA).
In this situation, the United States will lose the reason to scare the countries of the region with the “Chinese threat”, and the “security” services that Washington imposes on China’s neighbors in the region will become unnecessary.
Against this background, it is clear that the biggest problem in the South China Sea does not come from countries in the region, but from the actions of outside powers that are trying to turn the South China Sea “into a sea of conflict and war”, says Chinese military expert Song Zhongping .
Washington has been pushing the Philippines to sabotage this document, resulting in Manila promoting an alternative approach, seeking separate bilateral agreements with countries in the region on the Code of Conduct in the UCM. Vietnam and Malaysia are currently under consideration.
Philippine President Marcos Jr. announced Manila’s plans in late November during a visit to the US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii.
Marcos’ statement came about three weeks after the 21st Senior Officials’ Meeting on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea held in Beijing on October 26 and a few days after China-Philippines talks at the Economic ATIS leaders. Judging by the rhetoric of the President of the Philippines, the negotiations on the sidelines of ATIS have been unsuccessful.
Against this background, the Philippines believes that the multilateral agreement on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea involving ASEAN and the PRC does not meet its national interests.
The Philippines wants to review the third reading of the text while continuing to align with the United States as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy.
At the same time, Manila under Marcos Jr. is trying to create its own support group, calling on other US allies in the region, as well as countries that have territorial disputes with China, to unite to stand up to Beijing.
The Philippines and Japan are understood to have begun talks on a mutual access agreement that would allow the deployment of armed forces on each other’s territory amid rising tensions in the region.
The history of the Sino-Philippines escalation in the South China Sea is a continuation of the American “Ukrainian scheme” in other regions of the world to create crisis zones around countries that are considered by Washington to be enemies and competitors.
The Biden administration has systematically turned partners and allies dependent on the United States against China, creating a “belt” or “ring of instability” around China in addition to Taiwan.
Engaging Vietnam in anti-Chinese adventures will most likely fail. But the Philippines under Marcos Jr. is noticeably pro-American.
Manila apparently expects that inclusion in the US agenda in Southeast Asia and the attraction of extra-regional powers to its side, in this case the US, will force the PRC to back down in the territorial dispute and in the discussion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.
These calculations miss an important point: U.S. interests away from its territory are transitory and dependent on very changing conditions, unlike the fact of the Philippines’ proximity to China, which is permanent and unchanging.
Chinese experts point out that the PLA “will take decisive measures to protect the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and ensure regional peace and stability” and clarify that the Philippines must decide “how far it can afford to go as a pawn of the United States in the region.”
Translation: SM
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