Coinciding with the new ground attack launched by Israel on the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, the intensity of clashes increased on the Lebanese border and along the border strip extending from the town of Shebaa in the east on the heights of Mount Hermon, all the way to Naqoura in the west on the Lebanese-Israeli border on the Mediterranean Sea.
Anxiety and anticipation
The Lebanese citizen lives hours of anticipation as a result of the increasing security developments at the border, heightened by the fear that the country will be dragged into war after the Lebanese Hezbollah announced the appearance of its leader Hassan Nasrallah at three in the afternoon next Friday.
While the Lebanese feared the expansion of the bombing circle, the street movement seemed to draw question marks about the unknown fate for fear of announcing zero hour for direct intervention in the battle.
Deterrence equation
In this context, writer and political analyst Munir Al-Rabie said in his interview with Sky News Arabia that “with the start of the military operation in the Gaza Strip, Nasrallah will try to establish a clear equation.”
He said: If the Israeli ground entry into the Gaza Strip is not strong and effective during the next two days, Hezbollah will establish an equation, “If you strike, we will strike,” continuing: “Hezbollah will remain in the same equation, and I expect the tone and rhetoric to be high, and I do not think that we will reach the stage of announcing Total war.”
Lebanon: Factions on the line of escalation
Escalation at a controlled pace
Political analyst Asaad Bishara says to Sky News Arabia: “Iran has been escalating verbally since the beginning of the war, but it is content with intervening through Hezbollah in southern Lebanon at a controlled pace in the engagement, and this pace so far cannot be interpreted as the beginning of a major war similar to the 2006 aggression.” “.
He continued: “Hezbollah will continue to adopt a high-pitched rhetoric and threaten Israel, which constitutes an extension of the positions announced by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and it is not unlikely that it will announce an increase in the pace of military operations in the south, but not to the point of completely opening the front, because Iran knows better than anyone else.” Opening this front will lead to a direct collision with the Americans.”
He concluded: “Everyone knows that the American buildup in the Eastern Mediterranean is unprecedented, and therefore the expectation that the tone of the threat will be raised is certain, but the expectation that this threat will be translated into effect is doubtful until further notice.”
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2023-10-31 19:04:25
