An armed soldier from Yemen’s Ansar Allah (Houthi rebels) stands on top of a cargo ship in the Red Sea last month. Reuters Yonhap News
As the Gaza War, in which Israel indiscriminately deploys its overwhelming military power, enters its third month, changes in the Middle East order are finally becoming visible. On the 18th, the United States announced ‘Operation Prosperity Guardians’, a multinational maritime coalition force to combat the threat of Yemen’s ‘Ansar Allah’ (Supporters of God). Ansar Allah has been launching missiles and drones toward Israel since the Gaza War and has been attacking ships bound for Israel in the Red Sea. The fact that Ansar Allah, called the ‘Houthi rebels’, revealed its influence in the Red Sea, a bottleneck in global trade, and the international community, including the United States, began to respond, can be said to be the first change in the designated order brought about specifically by the Gaza War.
The anti-American, anti-Israel alliance is becoming stronger.
The fact that the change in the designated order caused by the Gaza War first occurred not at the border with Israel but at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, 2,000 km away, means that the aftermath of this war is spreading throughout the Middle East. The fact that Ansar Allah, a ‘third party’, is showing its presence in the Gaza war points to the increasing influence of the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ forces to which this group belongs and Iran, its leading country. The axis of resistance, which includes ‘Iran, Syria’s Bashar Assad government, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestine’s Hamas, Iraq’s Shia militants, and Yemen’s Ansar Allah,’ is gaining support and influence in the Islamic world by promoting its anti-American and anti-Israel causes. getting it Before the Gaza War, the United States judged that it had reached the stage of completion by establishing a designated order that was advantageous to itself and its allies along three axes in the Middle East. The first axis is the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is the culmination of the Abrahamic Treaties (normalization of relations between Israel and pro-Western Sunni countries). Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said about negotiations on normalizing relations with Israel in an interview with Fox News on September 20, “It’s getting closer every day. I feel serious for the first time. “This is the largest historic deal since the end of the Cold War,” he said, implying that a settlement was imminent. Second, the restoration of international nuclear negotiations with Iran. The Biden administration sought to reinstate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an international nuclear agreement with Iran that former President Donald Trump unilaterally abolished, to return Iran to the international community and eliminate the nuclear threat. Negotiations did not go smoothly as Iran rebelled against the high conditions, which were conscious of domestic hardliners who refused to compromise with Iran. Third, there is the ambitious construction of a trade corridor that will prevent China from advancing into the Middle East. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan toured the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, in early May, met with security advisors from India and the United Arab Emirates, and proposed the construction of large-scale infrastructure such as a railway connecting India and Saudi Arabia. The intention is to create a trade corridor extending from India through the Middle East to Europe to counter China’s One Belt One Road strategy of advancing into the Middle East. To this end, a multilateral consultative body called ‘I2U2’, which brings together ‘Israel and India’ (I2) and the United States and the United Arab Emirates (U2), is in operation. The United States’ plan was to stabilize the situation in the Middle East through three pillars: the Abraham Treaty, restoration of the nuclear agreement with Iran, and construction of a Middle East trade corridor, and then focus on confronting China in the Indo-Pacific. But the outbreak of the Gaza war put all this in vain. Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad said at a Fox News conference on September 20 that the issue of establishing diplomatic ties with Israel depends on how much Israel concedes to the Palestinian issue, but said, “No matter who is in charge, we have no choice but to cooperate with Israel.” Hamas leader Ismail Haniya said immediately after the Israeli attack on October 7 that triggered the Gaza war, “All the normalization agreements you (Arab countries) signed with them do not resolve the (Palestinian) conflict.” It was revealed that it was intended to block the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. As public opinion against Israel surged in the Middle East due to the outbreak of the Gaza War, Saudi Arabia notified the United States to suspend diplomatic negotiations with Israel, AFP news agency reported. The same goes for the difficult nuclear negotiations with Iran. At a time when Israel is threatening a confrontation with Iran, which supports Hamas, due to the outbreak of war in Gaza, there is no reason for Iran to advance nuclear negotiations. In particular, Iran was improving relations with Sunni pro-Western Arab countries after suddenly restoring diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia through China’s mediation in early March.
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The United States and Israel are in a hurry
When the Gaza war broke out, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and the UN mission left open the possibility of their intervention, saying that if Israel’s war crimes and genocide against Gaza were not immediately stopped, the Middle East would spiral out of control. . Immediately after the war, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which clashed with Israel in the border area, was expected to come to the forefront. However, there were concerns that if Hezbollah, which borders Israel, took action, Israel, which has overwhelming military power, could later extend the Gaza war to Lebanon. In this situation, Yemen’s Ansar Allah emerged as the leader in attacking Israel. Israel’s military power cannot reach the Red Sea, which is 2,000 km away, and its effect can be maximized by threatening international logistics. Most of the world’s top 10 shipping companies and major oil company BP have already announced the suspension of Red Sea navigation, causing oil prices and freight rates to fluctuate. For Ansar Allah, this is an effect that kills two birds with one stone. This is because their status, legitimacy, and influence in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait can be recognized in the name of the anti-Israel struggle in the Middle East. Ansar Allah was a sect within Shia, a minority sect in the Islamic world, and its legitimacy was not recognized. Ansar Allah vowed to step up its attacks in the Red Sea immediately after the US announcement of Operation Prosperity Defenders. The U.S.-led multinational maritime coalition force can inflict military retaliation against Ansar Allah, but the reality is that it will only be a one-off event. This is because an attack to neutralize Ansar Allah, which effectively won the civil war in Yemen, would turn the Red Sea into a long-term battlefield. Except for Bahrain, no country in the Middle East has announced its intention to participate in ‘Operation Prosperity Defender’. Coinciding with the announcement of Operation Prosperity Guardians, U.S. President Joe Biden sent National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Israel to pressure them to reduce attacks on civilians and ceasefire in the Gaza war. Afterwards, Israel again suggested that there could be a temporary ceasefire for hostage exchange, but Hamas is showing its guts, saying that Israel can only negotiate the release of hostages if there is a ceasefire first. These are signs that the war in Gaza is entering a new phase. Jeong Eui-gil, senior international affairs reporter, Egil@hani.co.kr, writes in the international field at the Hankyoreh. While writing for newspapers, he also published books such as ‘The Birth of an Islamic Warrior’ and ‘Prisoners of Geopolitics’.
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2023-12-22 23:00:11
