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Erna Solberg and the Conservative Party face opposition in Bergen. It won’t be as easy as it seemed, writes Sondre Hansmark.
MEETS OPPOSITION: Erna Solberg and the Conservative Party are not heading for as good an election in Bergen as they had hoped. Photo: Hans Arne Vedlog / Dagbladet Show more
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Published Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 11:10 am
BERGEN (Daily newspaper): Erna Solberg’s popularity and affiliation notwithstanding: I don’t think there is any other city in Norway where the Conservative Party has fallen as sharply this year as in Bergen.
This spring, the party sniffed the opinion polls in the 40s. A recent poll in Bergens Tidende and VG has reduced the prediction to 25.4 percent of the vote.
The leader of the Conservative Party is, wisely enough, using the last days of the election campaign rush in his home town. As always, there will be a lot of selfies and cheers. But she must therefore take quite a few of them to reverse the lost lead for the Right.
And not only that: Now the city’s city council leader, the Labor Party’s Rune Bakervik, has for the first time caught up with Conservative challenger Christine Meyer in the popularity polls. Not so long ago, there was a clear lead for Meyer. Now there are 34 percent who want her, compared to 37 percent for the current boss if we are to believe the survey.
For a long time it seemed to be a “walk in the park” for the Right. Now it has turned into a tough battle to mobilize the home sitters and to get more Ap voters, with only a few days left until the polling stations close.
FALLBODENS: The week before the election, Dagbladet invites all the party leaders to an interview in our election booth in front of the Storting. On Wednesday it was Rødt leader Marie Sneve Martinussen’s turn to be grilled. Program manager: Steinar Suvatne / Dagbladet Show more
Bergen has become the thriller city few had imagined earlier this year. Against most odds, today’s city council may end up staying put – although it may have to be expanded somewhat. If the Conservative Party wins power, it may be more demanding to build a majority than expected. Perhaps it will take one or two more protest parties to gain a majority in the city council.
The Conservative Party has already ruled out MDG cooperation, and may therefore be dependent on turning to the Industrial and Business Party to secure power. In addition, such a constellation must lure the Left back over to the bourgeois side.
The background numbers for it The latest national municipal poll Norstat has conducted for Dagbladet tells us something about what is happening with the Conservative Party.
The voter leakage from Ap to Høyre has slowed sharply in recent months. Earlier this year, Ap lost voters in droves to the Conservative Party. Now the overall voter migration has been tightened. This also applies to the aforementioned Bergen survey that VG and BT published this week.
In addition, the Labor Party manages to mobilize more first-time voters and fence-sitters than before. The Conservatives, on the other hand, lose 150,000 voters to the fence.
Blue-blue slime
So as not to bombard you, dear reader, with numbers and calculations, we make it simple: the Labor Party thus attracts more first-time voters and fence-sitters than the party loses to the fence. For the Right it is now the opposite.
The Conservative Party has long had a stake in the ceiling in terms of support. Put simply, there have been as good numbers in the opinion polls as it is possible to get. But of course you cannot count on everyone who states a preference when the phone rings actually turning up at the polling stations.
The right has been fully mobilized over time. Now there has been demobilization in recent weeks. Therefore, the election is closer than many had predicted in advance.
In Bergen, it is now the FRP that is growing the most compared to the last election. It may have its explanation in the fact that the toll party is dead and buried, and that the party has left behind the deep conflicts that have plagued the party for years. If the FRP picks up the momentum that the Conservative Party has had, and the voters do not stay at home or stay with the Labor Party, it may still work out for the Conservative Party.
Ironically, it can The Labor Party ended up being the big winner this election campaign, even though the party is heading for a crisis election. The Conservative Party may be the big loser, even if the party is set to become bigger than Ap for the first time in over a hundred years.
Much of it is about an Ap that has been in good election campaign form. Jonas Gahr Støre has been persuasive in a number of party leader debates, despite the government’s credibility crises.
Could be a real defeat
The Conservatives, on the other hand, have none manner was alien to the party falling towards election day. I don’t think many people could have imagined that the fall would be so strong.
There will probably be no immediate clarification on election night about who will govern Bergen. At least I wouldn’t stay awake waiting for the answer. Then you have to count on a number of waking hours.
It can be a delicate calculation, and there will clearly be tough negotiations in a fragmented and irreconcilable political landscape. In any case, Høyre will not be the cuckoo king it had hoped for.
2023-09-10 09:13:19
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