Bob Glenn has voted Republican his entire life. At 74 years old, this fan of Ronald Reagan and his “economic patriotism” did not think he would one day have to renounce his convictions. But Donald Trump burst onto the political scene in 2015 like a dog in a bowling game, and this quiet funeral director’s world was turned upside down. In Union City, a small town with a Wild West feel nestled in the green hills of Pennsylvania, all of Bob’s acquaintances – childhood friends, neighbors, coffee shop associates – lined up behind the troublemaker from Mar-a-Lago (Florida). ).
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Bob Glenn, a former Republican who now campaigns for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
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Not him. “I never liked Donald Trump,” emphasizes the septuagenarian with the finely trimmed white beard. I have seen too many funerals, too many big guys in uniform crushing a tear at the funeral of their comrades to put up with the insulting remarks of this guy who calls dead soldiers and the wounded “morons” and “losers.” ”. I never voted for him. In 2020, it was really one vote too many. » One fall day that year, Bob Glenn walked through the door of the local headquarters of the Democratic Party, isolated in ultra-conservative land like a Gallic village surrounded by the legions of Rome. And he offered to help.
Erie has acquired a flattering reputation: where it leans, Pennsylvania will follow
Unavoidable state
Erie County, on the shores of the eponymous lake in northern Pennsylvania, has a reputation as a “boomerang” county. It is one of those rare constituencies, among the seven key states of 2024 (Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) to have always leaned for two decades in the direction of the final winner: Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016 (by 1,917 votes), Joe Biden in 2020 (by 1,457 votes). Suffice it to say, a tiny margin in a county of 250,000 souls, including 175,000 registered voters.
By consistently choosing the right horse, Erie has acquired a flattering reputation: where it leans, Pennsylvania will follow. However, the Keystone State, in 2024, is the mother of all battles: with its 19 electors, it is essential for both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, forcing the two campaign teams to redouble their efforts, resources, of volunteers to mobilize every last identified sympathizer, however reluctant or undecided they may be.
The “hunting” concerns moderates, centrists, Republicans disappointed with Trump
Influx of Democratic volunteers
Backcountry in Erie, Democrats fielded an impressive organization on the ground, aided by generous finances and an influx of volunteers. The enthusiasm for the vice-president, who became a presidential candidate on July 21, is very real. “Since Joe Biden decided to throw in the towel and Kamala Harris took over the reins, it’s been completely crazy,” summarizes Sam Talarico, local Democratic official and retired teacher. Until then, we had a list of 60 volunteers to knock on doors, and now we have 320! Not to mention 225 others ready to help as much as they are available, to maintain duty, warm up telephones, register voters…”
The “hunting” concerns moderates, centrists, Republicans disappointed with Trump, like Bob Glenn. And the game, for the Democratic camp, is worth it: 9% of Republican voters across the country are considering voting for Kamala Harris, compared to 5% when Joe Biden was still in the running. This pool of defectors could well make the difference in a state as contested as Pennsylvania, where Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 44,000 votes in 2016 before losing to Biden by 80,000 votes in 2020.
“Margins tighter than ever”
Building on the traumatic experience of 2016, the Democrats understood two things: one, the worker vote partially escaped them in favor of the Republican candidate, despite the formal allegiance of the major unions; two, it will be necessary to fight all the more for all the constituencies, even the most rural and “bright red” ones [massivement conservatrices, NDLR]in order not to bet everything on the urban concentrations of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia… and to seek to reduce the vote deficit in hostile counties.
“The enthusiasm is in the Democratic camp, which has deployed a “ground game” [une organisation de terrain, NDLR] very impressive, but the margins are tighter than ever,” warns Jeffrey Bloodworth, political scientist at Gannon University (Erie). “The enthusiasm is in their camp,” concedes Republican strategist David Urban, architect of Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2016. “But if we did it once, we can do it again. »
