“Erdogan’s Election Victory and its Impact on the Turkish Economy and EU Membership”

The Turkish currency has weakened by over 7 percentage points since the turn of the year and has lost over 90 percent of its value against the dollar over the past decade.

The Turkish economy is characterized by marked ups and downs, galloping inflation and a persistent currency crisis.

Since 2021, the authorities have intervened directly in the currency market, and the daily exchange rate fluctuations are strictly regulated and are described by foreign observers as unnaturally small.

No optimism

– Erdogan’s victory is no encouragement for potential investors. Only the most optimistic hope that the president now feels confident enough to reintroduce an orthodox economic policy, says Hasnain Malik in the analysis company Tellimer Equity Research.

Benjamin Picton, chief macro strategist at Rabobank, tells Reuters that Erdogan’s victory will further increase pressure on the Turkish lira.

The surprisingly strong support for Erdogan in the first round of the election triggered a selling rush in Turkish government bonds and rising insurance premiums for those exposed to Turkish government debt.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has survived years of chaotic economic conditions, a state that many foreign economists attribute to government interference and his contrarian interest rate policies.

Does not bite

But economic mismanagement does not seem to have bitten the electorate. When all the ballot boxes were opened, the figures showed that Erdogan had received the support of 52.1 percent, while 47.9 percent had rallied behind opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

– The only winner is Turkey. We will govern for the next five years, and we will earn the people’s support, as we have done for 21 years, Erdogan told his supporters from the roof of a bus in Istanbul.

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Leaders from around the world congratulate Erdogan on his election victory. Prime Minister Støre says he expects that the country will now say yes to Sweden’s NATO membership. US President Joe Biden looks forward to continuing to work together in NATO on bilateral issues and shared global challenges.

The EU, Great Britain and NATO also send their congratulations to Erdogan. So do Russia and China.

Not an EU member

The leader of the largest party grouping in the EU Parliament, Manfred Weber, believes that Erdogan’s re-election must lead to the process of bringing Turkey as an EU member to a dead end. The EU opened the door for Turkey to become a candidate country in 1999, and formal negotiations began in 2005.

From 2013, very little has happened, and the process has stagnated. Heavy EU countries believe that Turkey does not belong in a democratic organization such as the EU, and that the country undermines the rule of law and fundamental European values.

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But as recently as last March, Erdogan called for the negotiations to resume.

Now the leader of the European People’s Party EPP, which brings together centre-right parties, says that the process is a dead end.

– The last few years have shown that a close partnership is important, but that nobody wants Turkey to join the EU as a full member, neither Turkey nor the EU countries, says Weber. He believes the process must be ended, as it blocks rather than promotes better relations.

Weber says in an interview with Funke Media Group that Erdogan must immediately give up on Sweden’s membership in NATO.

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The polling stations in Turkey are open