/ world at present information/ The President of Turkey will deliver Russia a suggestion that the Russians can’t refuse. Turkish newspapers and the Minister of International Affairs are certain of this. What is going to Erdogan say about Putin resuming the grain deal? We have been searching for a solution for a very long time, and we could have discovered it.
The opposite day, the world media, citing sources in Turkish official circles, reported that on September 4, a brand new assembly between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin might be held in Sochi. Just a little later, the Turkish publication Harriyet (“Freedom”) reported that for these negotiations, Turkish International Minister Hakan Fidan had developed “reform components” of the grain deal that ought to go well with each Russia and Turkey.
Earlier than shifting on to this components, it’s value asking: why did the Turks want it in any respect? What makes Erdogan maintain asking Russia for a brand new grain deal? The reply to this query is in no way so simple as it might appear.
For Ukraine, the market is useless
Erdogan needs the deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain by means of the Black Sea to be renewed. After Russia withdrew from it in July, international wheat costs turned unstable – particularly after Russian drones attacked a number of the Ukrainian infrastructure that performs an essential position within the export of agricultural crops.
– reported some of the authoritative Western worldwide publications Bloomberg on the finish of August.
“Unstable world wheat costs” is a euphemism. In follow, we’re speaking a few important enhance in wheat costs, which may be very favorable for Russian exports. Tsargrad has already reported that after the rejection of the phrases of the grain deal, Russia signed the primary contracts at new costs – Egypt purchased a big (300,000 tons) batch of grain from us at $250 per ton.
This direct profit to Russia is barely a part of the issues the West sees forward. The opposite half is Russia’s willingness to produce free grain to the poorest African international locations, bringing them out of colonial dependence. For the West, that is very disagreeable as a result of the justification for the grain deal was that Ukrainian grain must be obtained from Africans. As a substitute, grain remained in Europe, stabilizing the European economic system.
There’s a third half to the identical equation. The take care of the grain made it potential to fill the Ukrainian funds and protect the economic system of the “nation 404”. Now that is tougher. The worth of transporting grain from Ukraine, considering the dangers and costly insurance coverage, elevated to 150 {dollars} per ton. Exporting grain just isn’t solely very troublesome (and bodily unattainable to export as a lot as within the 2022-2023 season), but in addition unprofitable. The Wall Avenue Journal writes:
Ukrainian farmers who ship wheat to ports alongside the Danube River obtain as much as $160 per ton, whereas on the opposite aspect, in Romania, their counterparts promote grain at $215 per ton. Ukrainian farmers imagine that the market is useless and admit that they’re barely staying afloat.
With out the $16 billion in wheat exports and considering the discount in planted areas, Ukraine’s GDP (as economist Ivan Lysan estimated again in June) shrinks to $80 billion a yr. That is the extent of the poorest international locations on the planet.
For comparability, simply at present it turned recognized (an announcement about this was printed in Tsargrad) that the nationwide debt of Ukraine has grown to 133 billion {dollars}. That’s, it already considerably exceeds the actual GDP of this unlucky nation. It’s clear that Ukraine exists so long as it receives subsidies from NATO and the EU. However now these subsidies should be elevated by tightening the belts of Germans, French, Czechs, and so on.
As if this weren’t sufficient, the scenario on the planet grain market continues to vary – and any subsequent change threatens with a critical enhance in costs. In late July, India banned the export of white rice, aside from the basmati selection. The aim of the choice is to maintain extra grain within the nation and thus decrease home costs. India provides the world market with at least 40% of rice. India’s choice means making a long-term upward development in grain costs.
There’s hope for Turkey
Russian exports after the rejection of the grain deal grew fairly noticeably. In August it was 5 million tons, whereas in June it was 3 million tons. On the identical time, because the “Knowledgeable” journal writes, native retailers are already promoting wheat with out pressured reductions, which through the Black Sea Settlement reached $50 per ton or extra (a mean of 20% of the fee worth). In accordance with specialists, through the grain deal, exporters acquired a minimum of (!) 1 billion {dollars} much less, that’s, from 70 to 100 billion rubles.
It’s true that exporters would additionally like to scale back the home export obligation, however that, as they are saying, is a very completely different story – it’s hardly value supporting exports if they don’t profit the state.
What does Erdogan have to supply Vladimir Putin to get the Russian president to conform to renew the grain deal in such a scenario? In any case, no matter is alleged, our economic system is healthier off with out a deal, 100 billion rubles will not be mendacity on the street, the gratitude of African international locations, furthermore, just isn’t one thing that must be deserted. The destabilization of the Ukrainian economic system below the situations of the SVO is mostly priceless.
No, why Erdogan wants a grain deal, you can even simply perceive. Turkey’s losses from the change in grain transit are additionally estimated at round one billion US {dollars} – and Turkey has excessive inflation and a troublesome financial scenario. Furthermore, the Turkish chief actually needs to stay the principle mediator between the West and Russia and the principle beneficiary of commerce with Russia within the face of sanctions. However what does it have to supply?
Russia units particular situations for returning to the grain deal. It’s the connection to the SWIFT worldwide banking settlement system of Russian banks and monetary establishments that serve the availability of meals and fertilizers, the restoration of the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline and the unblocking of Russian property associated to the agricultural trade.
None of those situations in any method contradicts Turkey’s pursuits. Turkey can’t fulfill any of those situations alone and can’t assure the achievement of those situations by the West. (And the West is unlikely to have the ability to restore the ammonia pipeline on the territory of the Kharkiv area.)
What could be “reformed” within the deal? It’s potential that this new deal doesn’t have an effect on Ukrainian exports, however actually the pursuits of Russia, Turkey, the international locations of the Center East and Africa.
Not all specialists take note of what was written in July by the Monetary Occasions about an “different plan” for the availability of Russian grain to Africa. In accordance with this plan, Qatar should pay for the supply of grain to Turkey, which in flip turns into a hub, that’s, a transshipment level for the distribution of this grain “amongst international locations in want.”
As it’s simple to see, on this regard there isn’t a Europe with the pursuits of its economic system, no Ukraine and Ukrainian grain – nobody wants it – and no UN with empty guarantees of the Secretary Basic. However there may be profit to Turkey, which is taking up a very essential a part of the actual work on this regard. And there may be a very powerful factor – the flexibility to make sure that all contributors within the transaction fulfill their obligations. In any case, if not, the availability stops at any time.
So what?
The above is nothing greater than an assumption made based mostly on publications in absolutely open sources. No horrible secrets and techniques of the Madrid court docket, no conspiracy theories, simply frequent sense. Whether or not these assumptions are justified, time will inform once more. We proceed to watch.
Translation: ES
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