Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not approve of Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership. According to him, these countries should adopt a different attitude towards the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey and the European Union regard that party as a terrorist organisation. Turkey is not popular with his attitude, but according to experts, the West should take into account that it is serious for Erdogan. What is behind his refusal?
NATO is set up in such a way that all thirty members must approve membership. Finland and Sweden’s accession route thus runs via Ankara.
“That gives Turkey a tool to back up its demands,” said Sinan Ülgen, a former diplomat and now director of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), a Turkish think tank.
According to experts, Turkey is especially angry with Sweden. Turkey wants to see extradition of alleged PKK members. In addition, the country wants an end to the arms embargo in place since 2019, when Turkey invaded northern Syria.
“Turkey does not see itself in an alliance with a country that has imposed an arms embargo on Ankara. That could be a point of negotiation,” said Berk Esen, a political scientist at the Turkish Sabanci University and a researcher at the German Institute for International Security Affairs. (SWP). “The extradition of Kurds serves a political purpose for Erdogan. It is therefore more difficult to achieve.”
“Erdogan can go through with his refusal to admit Finland and Sweden, because the demands receive a lot of support in Turkey. The opposition also agrees,” said Ülgen. “In addition, with this attitude, Erdogan can play his favorite role of someone going against the West. He is a politician who always has domestic politics in mind.”
Signals to Washington and Moscow
Howard Eissenstat, Turkey expert from St. Lawrence University in the US state of New York, does not rule out the possibility that Ankara is also looking for a signal from Washington. “The uncooperative attitude may be a bargaining tactic.”
The administration of US President Joe Biden has asked Congress to give the green light to the sale of upgraded F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. An agreement on this could potentially change Erdogan’s mind.
After all, it is also possible that Erdogan is counting on his stance to strengthen the negotiating position with Russia, Esen adds. “With this he shows again to Putin that Turkey is trying to find the middle way in the war with Ukraine.”
Refusal seems calculated risk
With his refusal, Erdogan appears to be putting Turkey’s international reputation at risk. And this is not the first time within NATO. In 2019, the country caused a stir by accepting the Russian S-400 air defense system as a NATO member. That was against the sore leg of other countries of the alliance, with sanctions as a result.
In 2020, Turkey stepped on the brakes on NATO’s new defense plans for Poland and the Baltic states. Then it was Ankara’s job to get the Kurdish groups in Syria labeled as terrorist organizations.
As far as Ülgen is concerned, however, Erdogan is taking a calculated risk. “Certainly from a domestic point of view, there is something to be gained without deteriorating.”
Eissenstat shares that reading, although he is not convinced that Erdogan has exactly what he wants in mind. “Looks like he’s just shaking the tree to see what comes out.” As far as Eissenstat is concerned, the current quarrel is therefore more similar to the one from 2020 than the conflict with NATO in 2019.
“Erdogan benefits from delaying the accession negotiations between Finland and Sweden. The longer it takes, the more concessions will be made, is the idea. He does not want to be left empty-handed,” Esen said.
Parties do not benefit from disagreements within NATO
A real veto can cause reputational damage, Ülgen acknowledges. According to him, it will not come to that, but he does expect that Erdogan will continue to thwart longer than what the West takes into account. “The Turkish refusal is largely an emotional decision, not a rational one.”
Still, Ülgen thinks the parties will come to an agreement. “Turkey ultimately does not benefit from disagreements within NATO. Nor does Sweden.”
“I do not have the impression that Turkey is seeking a break with NATO,” Eissenstat added. “The country will have to pay too high a price for that.”
Finland and Sweden have said they want to talk to Erdogan.
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