Erdogan and Putin: – Both can talk badly about Europe

There are many speculations, but much is not known about the actual cooperation, and possible ties between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian Vladimir Putin personally, according to associate professor Einar Wigen in Turkey studies at the University of Oslo (UiO).

– What is quite clear is that Turkey has become dependent on Russia on a number of points, especially in energy, Wigen tells Dagbladet.

He says that Turkey imports a lot of Russian gas. In an attempt to make themselves less dependent on this gas, they are building nuclear power plants, but:

– These facilities are built and operated by Russians, so even though the Turks are trying to become less dependent on gas, this is happening in a way that still makes them dependent on Russia, he says.

– Keeps in touch

According to director Iver Neumann at Fridtjof Nansen’s Institute, there is a lot Turkey and Russia have in common.

– First, the countries have relatively similar histories in Europe. They are both large cultures that have used to be able to rest in themselves, but which in recent times have had to relate to a Europe that has become more dynamic, says Neumann.

The two current heads of state also have similarities, he continues:

– They are the same type of politicians, who appear to be strong in the eyes of the population, and who have given up the middle class.

– They are both populists, who address workers and farmers, and who stand in a “strong man tradition”. They like this, this suits them well, says Neumann, and continues the comparison:

– They are also despots, who stick with hand-picked “clients”, or “yes-men” at the same age as themselves – mainly men who owe them something.

– To what extent do the two presidents talk together?

– They keep in touch. It was Turkey that held the meeting where Ukraine and Russia spoke together for the first time after the invasion on 24 February. Turkey would like to play a role. Erdogan will appear strong by being a third party here, Neumannn replies, pointing out another key common feature between the presidents of Russia and Turkey:

– They are both skeptical of Europe.

He continues:

– As long as both can talk bad about Europe, they are good friends, but as soon as there is a competition about which of the countries is strongest, a conflict arises, he elaborates, and cites the conflict in the Middle East and Syria as examples here .

– A betrayal

According to Wigen at the UiO, Turkey has long made an attempt to be a supporter of the opposition in Syria – where Russia was again Assad’s main supporter.

– The Turks still have clients in Syria, ie groups there, which they support, he says.

In 2015, however, something changed, when the Turks shot down a Russian plane that entered Turkish airspace.

– The Turks then thought they would get the United States and the rest of the alliance on their side, but NATO largely left them alone, and it probably felt like a betrayal, Wigen says.

Turkey then had to face Russia’s pressure alone, and given how dependent they were on Russian gas, it became difficult, he continues.

– To stand alone against Russia then seemed impossible, and in retrospect the Turks have had a far less confrontational line. Turkey became far more lenient after discovering that the Americans did not support them in a possible military confrontation, Wigen says.

– The tone changed

When the regime in Turkey was subjected to an extensive coup attempt the following summer, Putin was the first to support and congratulate Erdogan as he emerged victorious from the conflict. At the same time, the United States put much more on the fence, Wigen states.

– In Turkish eyes, this was interpreted as the Allies were negative to Erdogan, and there was a widespread conspiracy theory that the Americans actually supported the coup attempt, he says.

Another example of something having changed in the relationship between Turkey and Russia became visible, according to Wigen, when the Russian ambassador to Ankara in December 2016 was shot and killed by a Turkish policeman.

– Then Turkey lay flat at once. It made sense, but also showed that the tone between the countries had clearly changed a lot, he says.

He continues:

– Something has happened here that can to a small extent be explained by the open sources. The behavior is so different that it can not be easily explained with what we know from open sources, but something has obviously happened here.

Buying weapons

Iver Neumann believes that Erdogan apparently “would like to have in a bag and sack”.

– Turkey will not identify with the West or with Putin. They are a member of NATO and sell drones to Ukraine. At the same time, they are buying weapons from Putin, he says, adding:

– This is the big drama here – whether Turkey will change sides.

– Do you think there is a risk of that?

– I do not think so, as Putin does so badly in the war, but it is a possibility, says Neumann, who adds that Turkey “does not buy weapons anywhere”.

– It is quite extensive, and a big issue for NATO, says Neuman.