A Belgian epidemiologist, working for the Swedish Karolinska Institute, warns that the current approach to the coronavirus by Sweden may soon lead to a new peak. “Schools had to stay open – even though this was publicly denied – to achieve group immunity. But at the same time, according to the government, children could not become infected”, epidemiologist Nele Brusselaers told NU.nl.
The number of COVID-19 infections in Sweden fluctuates according to the Johns Hopkins University between 200 and 400 per day, relatively less than, for example, the Netherlands. The number of deaths has also fallen sharply since June. Still, in terms of death toll, Sweden is still doing worse than neighboring countries Norway, Finland and Denmark combined. The reason for this may be the lack of corona measures taken by the Scandinavian country: almost the entire economy could remain open and children also have to go to school as usual.
Brusselaers, a scientist at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, says Sweden’s figures may not be complete. “For example, the government does not test children, because it does not believe that children can be infected. It is also very difficult to be tested in many places, so I take those infection figures with a grain of salt.”
The death toll (several days in the last month without any new deaths) is also incorrect due to delays, says Brusselaers. The Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet researched that the figures only include people who die within thirty days of an established infection. The response of the authorities to the news that if someone dies after thirty days is that there must be another reason.
According to Brusselaers this is unlikely. “It seems like an awful lot of effort is being put into making the numbers look better. The numbers are just updated late and then they say it’s all under control.”
Economy could (largely) remain open
Sweden stipulated that universities and borders had to be (partially) closed, but primary schools, bars, restaurants and shops could remain open. Also events for up to fifty people (Meanwhile five hundred) continued to be allowed and there is nowhere an obligation to mask. According to virologist Anders Tegnell, the Swedish equivalent of RIVM boss Jaap van Dissel, face masks don’t work and therefore sees no reason to oblige it. Swedish policy relies entirely on the advice of the health service, which is led by Tegnell.
Tegnell agreed Svenska Dagbladand explains that COVID-19 is a “long-winded” disease. His tactic is therefore to allow the disease to spread slowly, without overburdening healthcare. In addition, they hope to continue to stimulate the economy to some extent, so that fewer jobs will be lost. This seems to have partly succeeded: economically speaking Sweden did better in the second quarter than many other European countries that followed a strict approach.
Critical of policy
Just like more than two thousand scientists in April sent a letter to the government, Brusselaers is also very critical of Sweden’s approach. Fearing infection, the lack of measures and the downplaying of the virus, she returned to her home country of Belgium this month. From there she continues to work for the Karolinska Institute.
She made that decision because she says that the safety of her and her child cannot be guaranteed due to the limited measures taken. Children are allowed to stay at home when they are ill, but not if parents have become infected with the corona virus. In addition, she says there is a stigma on wearing mouth masks. “People who wear a mouth mask are looked at with the neck, they think you are infected.”
Brusselaers expects that the number of infections will soon increase again. “The Swedish government hopes that with their strategy the virus will go away on its own, just like in New Zealand and China. But Swedes will soon all sit back inside when it gets colder. People also return to their offices and schools after the holidays. . ” Yet she also sees a positive point: “Swedes have fewer social contacts than the Dutch and Belgians, which can help to slow down the spread.”
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