–
Published on: 09/11/2020 22:53
“It is confirmed that the epidemic in Italy is rapidly worsening. In most of the national territory it is compatible with a type 3 scenario but the number of Regions / PAs in which the baud rate is already compatible with scenario 4. Therefore, an overall and widespread very serious situation is confirmed on the entire national territory with criticalities now evident in numerous Italian Regions / PA. “This is what we read in the ISS report for the week 26 October-1 November 2020 (data updated to November 9, 2020). “The situation described in this report highlights strong criticalities of local services and the current or imminent achievement of the critical occupancy thresholds for hospital services in all Regions / PA “, reads the report, which therefore considers it” essential to strengthen mitigation measures in all Regions “and” a drastic reduction in physical interactions between people is necessary “.
“All Regions / PAs are classified at high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic on the territory or moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next few weeks. It is essential to strengthen the mitigation measures in all Regions / PAs as indicated in the document ‘Prevention and response to Covid-19: evolution of the strategy and planning in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period’ transmitted with the Circular of the Ministry of Health ” .
“It is confirmed – continues the report – that a drastic reduction in physical interactions between people is necessary in order to ease the pressure on health services. It is essential that the population avoid all opportunities for contact with people outside their own residential area that are not strictly necessary and to stay at home as much as possible “.
And again: “The increase in cases is widespread throughout the country, with all Regions / PPAAs reporting an increase in the number of diagnosed cases compared to the previous week (MdS flow)”.
In the week of October 26 – November 1, 2020, the Iss report continues, “there is a further strong increase in cases which brings the cumulative incidence (ISS flow data) in the last 14 days to 523.74 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 19/10 / 2020-01 / 11/2020 (vs 279.72 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 12 / 10-25 / 10). In the same period, the number of symptomatic cases went from 54,377 (period 12 / 10-25 / 10). to 129.238 (period 19 / 10-01 / 11) “. Furthermore, according to the report, the cumulative incidence in the last 7 days stood at 304.16 per 100,000 inhabitants.
“In the period 15-28 October 2020, the Rt calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.72 (95% CI: 1.45-1.83). Average Rt values higher than 1.5 are found in most of Italian Regions / PAs and higher than one in all Regions / PAs “. In particular, from the analysis of the data, it emerges that the Lombardy has exceeded 2 (Rt at 2.08), while Basilicata (Rt at 1.99) and Piedmont (Rt at 1.97) are approaching that threshold, followed by Molise (1.88) and the Province of Bolzano (1.87). Below 1.5 are positioned Liguria (1.48) Sicily (1.4), Lazio (1.36), Marche (1.29) Sardinia (1.24).
According to the report, moreover, “a total of one is observed criticality in maintaining high quality of the data reported to the integrated surveillance system both for timeliness (delay in notification of cases related to the surveillance system on aggregate data coordinated by the Ministry of Health) and for completeness. This led to a delay this week in the receipt of consolidated data from the Regions / PA for the week 26 October – 1 November which is currently the most recent consolidated data available. In itself, this constitutes further proof of the general criticality of resilience spread throughout the national territory and due to the seriousness of the epidemiological situation. As a consequence this can lead to an underestimation of the transmission speed and incidence “.
–
REPRODUCTION RESERVED © Copyright Adnkronos.
