02 december 2020
23:09
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If current trends continue, the number of hospital admissions will fall below the crucial threshold of 75 per day by January 10 at the latest. This shows an update of the scenarios with which mathematicians and engineers assist the government about the evolution of the pandemic.
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The epidemic continues to lose momentum. The number of daily new cases has decimated from more than 20,000 in early November to more than 2,000. The number of patients in our hospitals has halved to 3,707 from the peak in mid-November and there are still 854 people in intensive care – compared to almost 1,500 at the peak. But the pressure on hospitals is still real, as there were still almost 200 admissions on Tuesday.
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All forecasts continue to assume further weakening. This is evident from the latest update with scenarios about the impact of the corona rules on the situation in hospitals. These are made by the Restore consortium, which includes engineers and mathematicians from the universities of Hasselt, Namur, Ghent, Antwerp and Brussels. Biostatistician Niel Hens (from U Hasselt and Antwerp) and is an authority in epidemic scenarios. Scientists from other universities gathered around his SIMID research team, including Lander Willem, as a result of the COVID pandemic.
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Most optimistic scenario
The main conclusion is that the epidemic follows the most optimistic of the scenarios. It means that the October 19 measures, when one hug contact was introduced, the hospitality industry closed and a curfew was declared, are just as effective as the lockdown in the spring. “If the epidemic continues to evolve in this way, the number of hospital admissions will drop below 75 per day in the coming weeks.” The virus screenwriters think that will happen by January 10 at the latest. Between January and March the number of people in hospitals will therefore fall back to the level of last summer. At the time, there were no more than 150 people in the hospital at the lowest point.
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Crucial figure
It is no coincidence that the researchers are looking at when we may drop below 75 admissions. That 75 is a crucial figure for the government. Minister of Health Frank Vandenbroucke (sp.a) has set 800 new infections per day and 75 admissions per day as a threshold before there can be talk of relaxation. This will happen very gradually, at the earliest from 1 February. Because even if we were to drop below 800 infections and 75 before the end of the year, Vandenbroucke would still have a fight. Both parameters should also continue to show a downward trend for at least three weeks at a time.
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