There were 852 samples of Coronavirus arrived from 16 Italian Regions and Autonomous Provinces in the analysis laboratories: the 82 centers at work have identified an average of almost 20% of cases of English variant. Italy has to do with frightening numbers that bring it closer to the data collected by foreign countries already brought to their knees by variants. The confirmation of an emergency that in effect introduces us to a new era of the pandemic, that of mutations. What to do? Professor Andrea Crisanti think about the data arrived in the last few hours and what they will mean for the next few days.
Professor, the “English” variant is conquering the country. What are we not doing?
«What we have not done I would say. Unfortunately we need to talk about the past because the data of 20% indicates a state of emergency in all respects. We started checking out variants of Covid on the national territory not only late but also with very few means. The choice was to pursue measures that would have been more suitable for a country without diffusion problems and not in a situation with expanding variants. In short, all wrong. In a already seen demoralizing, we acted as if the problem didn’t exist and I really can’t get over it. Instead of sequencing as many variants as possible in the laboratories since November, we have chosen to carry out the controls with rapid tests, a totally inadequate strategy ».
Umbria entered the red only after the boom in variant cases, now Tuscany is starting to risk very similar spread but the decision at the moment provides for a timid transition to the orange band. What to do?
«Tuscany is in a difficult situation, but the point is that now there are no Regions not in danger, with the English variant there is none for anyone. The 20% clearly puts us in a state of emergency, just look at what happened in the space of 20 days in the UK: from 6 thousand to 70 thousand cases. What I am wondering is who is advising Minister Speranza. Until yesterday there was talk of yellow zones and mobility between the Regions, now it is time to reopen the ski resorts. Madness ».
What is it that has not yet been said about the danger we are in?
«The risk of no longer having control even with rapid tampons. The impact of the variants on the tests we are using for tracking can modify their effectiveness with the consequences this will have in increasing false negatives. A tracking system that will break down even more than it already is ».
Outbreaks in schools continue to appear in Italy, raising fear of a greater impact of the variant on children. The ISS in Italy has reassured, while the British experts from the beginning have advocated the opposite thesis: who to believe?
“To the British. They sequenced 200mila virus with a much more detailed current photograph than the one we have in Italy. We have not been able to implement an analysis program as if the problem did not concern us and this is the result ».
Now with Draghi things could change.
«Nobody does miracles. The messianic attitude towards Draghi will not solve a problem that is much more structural and certainly cannot be solved in one day “
But the pandemic and vaccination plan is also a matter of choices. Do you think it is appropriate to reconfirm the role of the Commissioner Domenico Arcuri also in the new government formation?
“In a couple of weeks we will be in a position to make even more drastic decisions that we could easily have avoided. I do not know Arcuri, and who inspired most of the decisions, but objectively the moves made were completely inadequate. The path followed is that of an amateurism that causes horror, first of all I would opt for a change of neurons, then if they decide it through a change of role or a transformation of strategy. Among the things that currently amaze me most is the question of primroses: no country has chosen to do infrastructure from scratch, they have exploited places already available with unparalleled savings and functionality. What is the use of the enormous effort of these pavilions from nothing? Also for Domenico Arcuri I wonder who is recommending him. The answer I have given myself is that the policy that is followed is that of spending: if it does not cost much, it is not a good strategy. A deleterious cultural and management approach that most of the time involves a very significant expense commitment and a very low if not counterproductive impact ».
Teacher, what to expect for the coming months of the new “variants phase”?
“There is no need to go very far. If we continue like this in a month we will be in a situation very similar to that of the United Kingdom, Israel and Portugal. With the 20% of the presence of an “English” variant the cases will explode in a short time ».
No hope with the help of vaccines?
“Vaccinating with these levels of transmission is not a step forward. We need to stop the variants to be able to really head towards mass immunization. The way now is to block everything with a lockdown, stem the spread of mutations and only in parallel vaccinate as many people as possible ».
