“English Local Elections: Prime Minister Sunak Faces First Real Test”

In the English local elections, Prime Minister Sunak has to face the people for the first time. The Conservatives are expected to lose 1,000 seats this Thursday.

For many decades, Tony Travers has been amused by the more or less elegant attempts by British parties to whitewash their election results in advance. The ruling Conservatives are predicted to lose up to 1,000 seats this Thursday; accordingly, the Tories are desperately trying to skyrocket expectations for the Labor opposition. “Then they can say afterwards: ‘Look, Labor is not doing well,'” predicts the politics professor at the London School of Economics (LSE).

Tens of thousands are running for a vote on refuse collection, business parks and road repairs over the next four years in all major communities in England except London, but not in Scotland and Wales. As always, many voters will use the polls as a reminder – or as a vote on a nationally dominant issue that goes far beyond the local community.

Four years ago it was Brexit, which was still unfinished at the time; the poor results in the local and subsequent European elections heralded the end of Prime Minister Theresa May’s term in office. This time, the difficult economic situation and the loss of their purchasing power are in the foreground for most people in England. For May’s successor Rishi Sunak, Thursday is the most important and possibly last test of mood before he has to call for the general election in 2024 – speculation is concentrated on autumn.

After the chaos caused by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, the 42-year-old head of government steered the ship of state into calmer waters, cleared up many a difficult problem and, last but not least, initiated a more pragmatic relationship with the EU. Stimulating the economy and bringing down inflation are two of the promises he keeps hammering into the electorate. Admittedly, the rate of inflation is still 10.1 percent, and the economy recently grew by just 0.1 percent.

Sunak can take comfort in the fact that Labor leader Keir Starmer doesn’t exactly get people excited either. “These are neither politicians who cause enthusiasm,” says LSE professor Sara Hobolt from the polls. The approval ratings for the prime minister and his 60-year-old opponent are each less than 30 percent. After all, Starmer has the advantage that people prefer his party: Labor was last at 40 percent, the Conservatives at 30 percent.

The Liberal Democrats (ten percent) under their chairman Edward Davey, who spoke offensively during the election campaign about a faster rapprochement with Brussels, have serious hopes; the two major parties, on the other hand, are avoiding the Brexit issue like the devil avoids holy water.

A new law caused a heated argument, according to which the English, for the first time, have to show a photo of identification paper in addition to their voting card. Since there are still no identity cards on the island and 13.5 percent of the population does not have a passport, the opposition sensed that the conservatives wanted to exclude the poor from the elections; the Tories, on the other hand, claimed they wanted to tackle allegedly widespread electoral fraud. Why over 60-year-olds are allowed to show their ID for the local transport company, while students are not, remained Downing Street’s secret. “It’s clearly political,” said Andy Burnham, Manchester’s Labor Mayor.

In any case, Professor Travers is looking forward to the Tories’ antics as to why Labor fared much worse than they did. The tactic was characterized by the satirical magazine “Private Eye” many years ago, when it commented on the picture of the sinking steamer “Titanic”: “That was a really bad night for the iceberg.”