The answer to this cannot be answered with a simple ‘choose fixed’ or ‘choose variable’. It has to do with 1: current rates, 2: expectations of future energy prices, 3: with developments in the war in Ukraine, and above all, 4: with your own character.
We’ll go through all four of them.
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1. Current rates
Logical, check the rates and compare those of different providers. Because those rates are certainly not always the same. “A number of providers charge expensive rates, with others the variable rate is reasonable. It is a waste of your wallet if you opt for the expensive variable rate without knowing it.”
So says energy expert Sinie Oskam of comparison site Gaslicht.com. She sees that the questions in this area are increasing, and now that there is again something to choose from, they can also advise better. “In the spring we said: just sit where you are. But in recent weeks there has been more supply.” When concluding a new contract, the most important thing is: do good research.
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2. Future rates
If you opt for a permanent contract, you are in the right place if prices continue to rise. If the rates fall for whatever reason, you will not benefit from it. You choose certainty.
Good to see what the possible prices are in the (near) future. Energy economist Hans van Cleef of ABN Amro says that the wholesale price for gas for next winter is now at 101 cents per cubic meter. That may not tell you much, but the rates of the energy provider are also determined on those prices. That 101 cents is very high.
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Very high, so, but the question is whether they will rise further. If that happens, you’ll be fine with a permanent contract. But not much to say about that. “You do not know how the war will go. The situation is uncertain,” said spokesman Babs van der Staak of the Consumers’ Association.
There is something more to be said about the long term. The expected prices for the winter of 2023 are already slightly lower, but still high at 80 cents, says economist Van Cleef. And it must always be said: it is only an expectation. With the current situation, everything can change just like that.
Prices will drop after next year. Ultimately even under 50 cents, Van Cleef knows. But the energy companies don’t go that far with their contracts. Too much uncertainty, so an annual contract is often the maximum achievable.
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3. Developments in Ukraine
Already mentioned a few times above and therefore also very relevant, the war in Ukraine† Economist Van Cleef says about this: “If the whole war is finished next week, gas prices will fall again.”
It is not expected that the war will indeed end soon, but it just shows how much influence Russian President Putin has on our energy bill. “Nobody knows, you don’t know how it will go,” says Van der Staak of the Consumers’ Association.
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So it can be better, but also much worse. What also affects the prices are the reserves for next winter. The Russian Gazprom, for example, turns off the gas tap to the Netherlands, making it more difficult to fill the reserves in the Netherlands. “We are not yet at 50 percent of those reserves for next winter,” says Van Cleef.
If those reserves are indeed not sufficiently filled, we must hope that it does not get too cold. “With a severe winter, we really have a serious problem. Then it may be that there are parties that can no longer deliver.”
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4. Your own character
‘There is no crystal ball’, ‘no one knows what will happen’ and: ‘there is no ready-made answer’. The experts in this article are also not sure what the price of the energy will be in a year’s time. And so the question of what to do, fixed or variable, cannot be answered instantly. At the moment, 50 percent of the Dutch have a flexible contract and the other half have a permanent contract. So well distributed.
Your own character makes the final decision. “People who like certainty will be happy with this choice,” says Van der Staak of the Consumers’ Association. And Sinie Oskam of Gaslicht.com: “What do you feel comfortable with? The rates may possibly rise further next winter. Securing can be a serious option, so you choose certainty. Especially now that it seems that the prices will not increase in the near future. will go down.”
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But yes, it is also possible that the prices actually fall, and that with your permanent contract you pay just a little more than your neighbors, who took a gamble and concluded a variable contract. It can – let’s say it again – go either way.
Yet. There is a choice, which is nice, says Van der Staak: “It will give a group of people peace of mind.”
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