/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/madsack/POI473P7ZFFL3F7JDMNH75VY5M.jpg "Energy embargo against Russia: how do MPs feel about it?")
In the past few weeks, the members of the Bundestag have primarily dealt with the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine. A central debate was whether and how citizens can be relieved of the rising costs of fossil fuels. The governing parties reached an agreement on Thursday. Another discussion centered on what additional measures should be taken to crack down on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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The argument about the high prices, for example for refueling, on the one hand and a possible embargo on gas, coal and oil from Russia on the other could also be followed on social media, for example on Twitter. The editorial network Germany (RND) evaluated the Twitter data from the past week of all around 600 members of the Bundestag represented there and traced the formation of opinion with some graphics.
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Energy costs are the bigger fuss
The analysis of the Twitter activities showed that the high fuel prices have moved the minds of the politicians far more than further sanctions against Russia, at least in public. In the past week, around 230 members of the Bundestag expressed their opinion on how to deal with the high energy prices on Twitter, forwarded a tweet to it or provided an approving heart.
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The graphic below highlights all members of the Bundestag who used the words energy costs, fuel price brake, tank discount or petrol price brake in a tweet or reacted to a tweet with these words from March 14 to 22, 2022 (reactions are reply, quote, retweet and favourites).
In the same period, however, only 60 parliamentarians took a position on a possible ban on imports of fossil fuels from Russia. The graphic below marks those parliamentarians who have used the words energy embargo, gas embargo, embargo, import ban or the combination of gas and Russia in a tweet or have reacted to a tweet with these words.
Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, among others, have called for this, the federal government has so far not brought itself to interrupt the billions of dollars in supplies of gas, oil and coal from Russia and the opposite flow of money. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) spoke out against an import ban because it could not take effect overnight. Germany is threatened with a recession if it takes hasty steps.
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Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) also opposed an immediate end to Russian energy supplies, because this would result in “very serious” damage to society as a whole. These could jeopardize the enforcement of other sanctions. On the other hand, Habeck also said: Should Russia stop its exports of its own accord, Germany would “be able to deal with it.”
Parliamentarians oppose the government
Despite the government’s negative attitude, there are supporters of an import ban not only from the opposition, but also from the government factions. Judging by the number of their followers, Jürgen Trittin (Greens), Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP) and Jessica Rosenthal (SPD) are among the most prominent advocates from the government camp. Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, member of the FDP board, demands, for example: “Germany must implement the import stop of these raw materials from Russia immediately.”
Approval comes from the opposition of Norbert Röttgen (CDU): “Standing applause for President Selenskyj, who asks Germany in the Bundestag to turn off Putin’s money supply. He’s right! Many in the Bundestag and in the population agree with him. We use it to finance Putin’s brutal war. The oil and gas embargo must finally come!” Paul Ziemiak (CDU) is also committed to an embargo: “If we want Ukraine to have a chance, we must expand SWIFT sanctions and prepare for an energy embargo. Scaremongering by Habeck and Baerbock on this is wrong in terms of content and strategy.”
Relatively few representatives of the SPD publicly support an import ban. One of the exceptions is Juso Chairwoman Jessica Rosenthal: “We can afford an oil and even gas embargo if we just want to. Let’s stop filling Putin’s war chest!” In contrast, there was not a single advocate of an energy embargo in the parliamentary groups of the left and the AfD.
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Scientists think the embargo is manageable
The National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina in Halle considers a short-term stop to the supply of Russian gas to be manageable for the German economy. However, bottlenecks could arise in the coming winter. However, there is an opportunity to limit the negative effects. The procurement of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the world market is recommended as an immediate measure. More coal-fired power generation could also contribute to replacing natural gas.
Industry fears the consequences of an import ban
Industry representatives are less optimistic on this issue. “The European Union is not prepared for a short-term, comprehensive energy embargo,” said BDI President Siegfried Russwurm. If there were no energy supplies, there was a threat of production stops with unforeseeable consequences for supply chains and employment.
Even if only a few MPs publicly support an embargo, there are even fewer who openly oppose it. A prominent representative in terms of the number of Twitter followers is the former candidate for chancellor of the Union parties, Armin Laschet, who advocates “careful consideration of the consequences of every embargo decision”. The CDU chairman Friedrich Merz also agrees: “If we were certain that the terrible war in Ukraine would end with an energy embargo against Russia after three or four weeks, there would be an immediate majority in the German Bundestag for it. But unfortunately we don’t have that certainty.”
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The former contender for the SPD presidency, Michael Roth, put it more clearly: “Anyone who demands an immediate energy embargo on Russia has not heard the shot!”. Left-wing politician Sevim Dagdelen writes: “If gas and oil imports from Russia are financing the war in Ukraine, aren’t gas and hydrogen imports from Qatar and the Emirates financing the war in Yemen?”
Lively discussion about energy costs
As reticent as Parliament is about the issue of an embargo on Twitter, the debate about the high energy prices for German consumers was just as agitated. One trigger was the contribution of the campaigning Prime Minister from Saarland, Tobias Hans (CDU). He had filmed himself in front of a gas station and denounced the high petrol prices. A little later, Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner pushed ahead with a proposal for a state-financed tank discount. Approval for this measure, however, came almost exclusively from dutiful party colleagues.
The number of MPs who objected to a tank discount or other perks at the pump was all the greater. Instead, Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir drew attention to food prices: “Not everyone has a car or is dependent on it. But everyone has to feed themselves. That’s why you have to ask whether relief here isn’t more targeted than with the price of petrol.”
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A tweet by DIW economist Marcel Fratzscher was liked by many MPs, including SPD chairwoman Saskia Esken: “The most important reason for the sharp increase in fuel prices is the much higher profit margins of the mineral oil companies. Politicians should not give corporations even higher profits with a fuel price brake or tax cuts, but correct the market failure.”
Many parliamentarians are in favor of the state helping citizens financially, but prefer measures other than the fuel discount. The deputy parliamentary group leader of the Union, Jens Spahn, called the tank discount a “bureaucracy monster” and instead called for tax cuts. His party leader Friedrich Merz (CDU) forwarded Spahn’s proposal to his Twitter subscribers, which is usually taken as approval there. CSU politician Dorothee Bär was more specific in her statement: “That’s why we’re calling for the fuel price brake. This will reduce VAT and energy tax and the added biofuel will be tax-exempt.”
Left and Union united for tax cut
On this issue, the views of the Union and the left are very close. The co-chairman of the left-wing faction Dietmar Bartsch wrote: “We need to double the planned subsidies, reduce VAT to 7 percent and reduce energy tax.” Many Greens also opposed the finance minister’s fuel discount proposal and opposed their concept of a mobility allowance. Bundestag Vice President Katrin Göring-Eckardt also called for cheaper public transport.
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The result of the lively discussion is a package with many individual measures that the leaders of the governing parties presented on Thursday. Accordingly, all employees who are subject to income tax receive a one-off energy price flat rate of 300 euros. In addition, there is a one-time family allowance of 100 euros for each child. This bonus is to be offset against the child allowance.
For recipients of social benefits, the one-time payment of 100 euros that has already been decided will be increased by a further 100 euros per person. In addition, they want to lower the price of fuel: for petrol by 30 cents per liter and for diesel by 14 cents per liter. The energy tax on fuels is to be reduced to the European minimum for a limited period of three months. In addition, there should be public transport tickets nationwide for 90 days for 9 euros.
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