The crises have followed each other in rapid succession and the uncertainty among the population is growing. The recovery after the fall of the Soviet Union has led to a significant inflation (general price increase), but since the incursion of Russia in Ukraine the situation is worse than ever, especially in the energy sector value Prices completely blow the pan. This is, of course, due to the war as such, but also to the western sanctions imposed on Russia: an arm wrestling match that mainly harms the citizens. They rightly wonder what will be on their plates in the coming months.
In this context, which of course causes panic among an awful lot of Belgian families, DH Radio professor Damien Ernst from the University of Liège (ULiège), a recognized energy specialist, was interviewed. The journalist on duty wanted to know whether Belgium in the coming winter with energy records will suffer, but also what the consequences are for the energy prices will be. Ernst, serious as he is, answered honestly…
A catastrophic situation
The professor made no secret of the fact that the current situation is catastrophic. He assumes that we are not with black-outs will have to deal with, nor that we gas of electricity going to miss, but he warns that the Prices will continue to rise. 80% of the annual gas consumed is simply between October and March, so during the winter“consumed”.
So according to Ernst we are not yet in the heart of this energy crisis arrived, even though the prices already doubled or even tripled. Even if supplies are not cut off, we will all have to pay (much) more. After all, within a few months there will be a much greater demand for gas and fossil fuels than today, which makes a price drop all but possible. On the contrary. He also points out that the price of gas between the beginning of the covid-crisis and today has increased by as much as 700%, more precisely from 16 euros per MWh to 130 euros.
Confirm German models
This gloomy forecast is in line with several German models. The critical moment of the crisis should be reached in mid-February 2023, as the German gas reserves will then be completely dry. Since some of the electricity is generated from gas, it is easy to understand why Germany is now in full coal-fired power stations let run, just like the Netherlands. Groen voters will not like to hear this, but Ernst speaks of “a very wise decision”.
Ernst also predicts that this situation will push prices up to such an extent that a lot of Belgians will no longer be able to pay their bills. State subsidies would not help in that regard, given the shortages of fossil fuels.
consume less
Ernst claims that we have only one thing to do, which is us energy consumption drastically (as recommended by the experts of the study group commissioned by the federal governmentwhich has just submitted conclusions and a series of measures has proposed). However, the man is surprised that the government does not take the lead in this matter and fails to communicate clearly with the population.
Of course the G7 countries put pressure on Russia over Ukraine. The richest countries in the world want a ceiling on the price of energy purchases, but an agreement seems unlikely as it requires the agreement of all stakeholders. However, we know that Russia is circumventing certain sanctions by, for example, re-registering its supertankers in India…
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