/ world today news/ The decision to suspend the grain deal, whose agreements were valid until July 17, was quite predictable, and a round table was scheduled for that date at RIA Novosti, where the consequences of the decision were discussed.
Canceling the deal has no economic significance for Russia, since none of the favorable conditions for our country have been fulfilled anyway, and the consequences will be rather political. The ambiguous reaction of Turkey has already become the first of them.
On the morning of July 17, Vladimir Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said: “As the president said earlier, the deadline is running out. Unfortunately, the Russian part of this Black Sea agreement has not been fulfilled. The transaction is therefore terminated.”
And Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia had notified Turkey, the United Nations and Ukraine of its objection to extending the grain deal.
Official Ankara responded that it regretted Russia’s decision, but would still contribute to the removal of obstacles to Russian food exports. And the Turkish media spoke in a completely opposite way.
According to RIA Novosti, the press, citing Ankara, reported that the grain deal will continue without Russia, and Turkish warships will continue to escort transport of Ukrainian grain.
We should not care about Turkey’s pity
“We often state in various cases that partners do not fulfill their obligations, but apart from statements we do nothing. This creates the illusion among Western former comrades that Russia can be cheated with impunity,” Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Professor at the National Research University “Higher School of Economics” Andrey Baklanov, said during the round table.
“Our old friend Erdogan shamelessly uses the same, based only on his own interests. It was high time to move to a more concrete language of action,” Baklanov also stated.
“We did everything to ensure that Erdogan won the elections in Turkey. And the fuel was loaded into the Akkuyu NPP reactor, and the grain deal, which is beneficial only for Turkey, was extended. What is the answer,” asked Vladimir Evseev, head of the SCO Department at the CIS Institute, a military expert.
“Now we see that the population of Ukraine is emigrating to the border zone in the Sumy region. Why – it is not difficult to guess: from there, an attack is being prepared against two of our regions: Bryansk and Kursk, and the distance of the Kursk nuclear power plant from the borders is only 50 km,” he said.
“At the same time, Erdogan meets with Zelensky, announces support for Ukraine, releases the nationalists from the Azov regiment, supplies Kiev with UAVs that can attack the Kursk nuclear power plant, and builds a plant in Ukraine so that the nationalists can produce themselves such UAVs. After all this, we should not worry about the regret expressed by the Turkish Foreign Ministry,” the expert added.
“The grain deal for Russia was extremely political in nature – the nature of an advance to Erdogan,” said the director of the International Institute of the Newest States, associate professor at the Financial Academy of the Government of the Russian Federation, Alexei Martynov.
“With this deal, Turkey became one of the leading producers of flour. But Erdogan and his clan did not make the advance,” he summarizes.
Storm in the Black Sea
“If Erdogan is really an ally of Russia, nothing prevents him from buying Russian grain and making Turkish flour from it in the same way as from Ukrainian grain, and if he wants to help poor countries, it is not clear why this has not been done so far ”, – says Vladimir Avatkov, head of the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department, INION RAN, professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
According to the scientist, it is necessary not only to help Erdogan and strengthen his power, but also to understand whom we are strengthening.
“We don’t understand it yet. The fact that Erdogan did not allow the American fleet to reach our Black Sea, we immediately perceived as a friendly step,” the professor added.
“But this step can also mean something completely different: it just shows who is the boss in the house,” suggests Vladimir Avatkov.
The correspondent of “Expert” at the round table asked the question: can Turkey, under the guise of the grain deal, try to establish control over the territory of Ukraine in Odesa region?
The Director of the Institute for Political and Social Studies of the Black Sea-Caspian Region Viktor Nadein-Raevski responded as follows:
“You have to understand how Turkey imagines the structure of the world. Remember the photo in which Erdogan is depicted with the leader of the Turkish nationalists Devlet Bahceli, holding a map of the Turkic world in his hands, and everything will immediately become clear.”
Surprisingly, the ministries of foreign affairs of Russia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and other countries did not ask any questions then,” he continued.
“Especially considering that our translators also made such a delicate translation as the Turkic world, but in fact it is a map of the great Turan. And Odessa, of course, is also included in it,” added Nadein-Raevski.
“After the presentation of the map, there were questions only from Armenia, which understands that there is no place for Armenians on this territory, and its cities are called Azerbaijani,” the scientist told “Expert”.
According to him, Russia should never forget that Turkey imagines the world exactly as it is on this map, however friendly the relations between our countries may seem. Turkey is increasing the pro-Turkish elites in the countries of the former USSR. There are also on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. These elites are anti-European, anti-American, but not at all pro-Russian.
And if the same Odessa, which due to its geographical position would be much better off without Kiev, can get rid of Ukraine with the help of Russia, then the probability that it will become Turkish is quite high.
“The Turks know how to wait. They strategize in such a way that they wait for their opponents to weaken and then take theirs. We must never forget that,” Nadein-Raevski said.
Returning to the grain deal, he noted that until last February, 70% of Turkish bread was baked from Russian flour, and now Ukrainian flour has replaced it.
But despite all the contradictions between Russia and Turkey, the two countries have a common interest: neither Ankara nor Moscow wants the Americans to rule the Black Sea.
According to Vladimir Yevseev, Russia should look for a “non-grain” format and a deal with Turkey that is not connected in any way with UN representatives, which would allow the two countries with the most powerful armies and navies in the region to avoid a confrontation. with another to avoid a major Black Sea storm dreamed up in the US.
The main thing is delicacy.
According to Andrey Baklanov, it is necessary to delicately, without aggravating relations, without stopping the construction of nuclear power plants and gas pipelines in Turkey, give Ankara the opportunity to understand that its support for Ukraine is inappropriate and that the UAV plant that Turkey is building in the town of Vasilkov, Kyiv region, will be destroyed.
“There’s no need to fight, but emphasis should be placed,” the diplomat said.
And of course, it is important for Ankara to know that we, unlike the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, will not take Turkish mercenaries like others into captivity, Vladimir Evseev added. And Vladimir Avatkov advised not to overdo it – neither with the whip nor with the carrot.
Translation: SM
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