A lot has changed in Sweden in six months. In November, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats spoke out against Swedish NATO membership. That wish was not really alive in society either.
‘Historical break’
“This is really a historic break”, says Scandinavia expert Petra Broomans of the University of Groningen.
Six months later, the largest party in Sweden announces that it is in favor of NATO accession. “A year ago there was no chance of this happening,” says Broomans. “It’s fueled by an age-old fear of Russia as an enemy.”
With the eventual accession of Sweden and Finland, NATO comes a lot closer for Russia, the opposite of what Putin wanted to achieve with his war in Ukraine:
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Sweden and Russia fought many wars between them in history, the last being in 1809. Russia defeated Sweden and took Finland, then still part of the Swedish kingdom. “But a kind of war fatigue had actually crept into Swedish society well before that,” says Broomans.
Sweden has since presented itself as a dove of peace, which has the best intentions for all countries. “Sweden has always been pragmatic above all,” explains Broomans. “Just look at the Second World War.”
Sweden remained neutral and kept Nazi Germany friendly by letting them use Swedish railways. When the Germans lost an important battle in 1943, Sweden again shifted slightly more towards the Allies. “The effect is that Sweden has never been bombed.”
‘Don’t provoke Putin’
NATO membership also seems to be about what suits Sweden best. Both the front and the adversary think they have the safest solution for Sweden. “Proponents say: by joining NATO, we protect ourselves from Putin,” says Broomans. “Opponents say: by joining NATO, we are provoking Putin.”
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Sweden remained neutral so as not to provoke Russia, but since the invasion of Ukraine nobody knows what Putin is planning and fear is growing. In recent years, Russian planes have illegally entered Swedish airspace on several occasions.
Also, ever since a Russian submarine ran aground in Swedish waters during the Cold War, there have been persistent rumors of new sightings of Russian submarines off the Swedish coast.
Sweden ‘defends to the last Fin’
In addition, Finland is now also over. While Sweden remained neutral all this time, Finland first had to break free from Russia. That succeeded in the First World War, after which the Finns also fought in the Second World War.
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Now Finland is a safe buffer for Sweden towards Russia. Sweden has always said they would join if Finland does too. In both countries there is a joke that Sweden ‘defends to the last Fin’.
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All this is reflected in Swedish opinion polls: public opinion is increasingly moving towards NATO membership. A narrow majority of 57 percent of Swedes is in favor of accession. Before the Russian invasion, this was still about a quarter.
If Sweden joins NATO, Finland will no longer have to defend Sweden alone. Article 5 of the NATO treaty states that ‘an attack on one is an attack on all’. Putin would then start a war with all of NATO by attacking Sweden.
Partly for this reason, there is also a lot of support in the Swedish parliament. The majority is overwhelming, now that Prime Minister Andersson’s ruling party has given up. Only the Left Party and environmental party The Greens are against.
Erdogan can block access
The Swedish application can then go quickly from here. Parliament will hold a debate on membership tomorrow, although a vote will probably no longer be necessary. Insiders tell the Swedish newspaper Expressen that the registration will already be sent tomorrow after the debate.
Finland and Sweden are not there yet with just an application: all NATO member states must agree to their accession. President Erdogan of NATO member Turkey said on Friday that he was “not positive” about this. Sweden and Finland want to discuss this with Turkey.
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