The Conference Board reported that the Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in September to 114.66, from 114.16 in August. The ETI is a leading composite employment index, when the index increases, employment is likely to also grow, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.
“ETI increased slightly in Septemberindicating continued job growth going forward,” said Selcuk Eren, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“The index has followed a slow downward trend since peaking in March 2022, but remains very above pre-pandemic levels”Eren added.
The Conference Board notes that data suggests the US economy will continue generating jobs during the rest of 2023 and into next year, even if the growth rate slows, as employment growth remains strong and wage growth remains elevated, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in November and keep them on hold higher for longer.
Eren added: “Several components of the ETI confirm that US labor markets are still tight. The initial requests for unemployment insurance remain very low, as is the share of workers who work part-time because they cannot find full-time jobs. Likewise, the percentage of companies that reported difficulties filling their vacant positions increased in September.”
The September increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from four of its eight components: initial unemployment insurance claims; proportion of involuntary part-time workers to all part-time workers; percentage of companies with positions that cannot be filled at this time; and Industrial Production.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading employment indicators, each of which has been proven to be accurate in its own area. Adding individual indicators into a composite index filters out the “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
Keep reading:
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2023-10-11 14:16:05
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