On the US economic front on Monday, the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index for August will be released at 2:30 pm (consensus 5), while the National Association of Home Builders will be revealed at 4:00 pm (FactSet consensus 54) . Christopher Waller, one of the Fed governors, will speak during the day.
Tomorrow Tuesday traders will be following the data on home launches and building permits, as well as US industrial production. US Retail Sales, Trade Stocks, the Department of Energy Weekly National Oil Stocks report and the Fed minutes will follow Wednesday. Philadelphia, Existing Home Resales and Leading Indicators Index. Esther George and Neel Kashkari of the Fed will speak during the day.
The July FOMC minutes are expected to attract some attention, although the monetary meeting came before the release of a consumer price index marking inflation declining to 8.5% in July year-over-year. and that of a producer price index unexpectedly down by 0.5% in the same month, compared to June.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike on September 21 at the end of the next FOMC meeting, between 2.75% and 3% on federal funds, is now 56.5. %, versus a 43.5% chance of another 75 basis points moving higher. The same tool shows a 46% probability of a 3.5-3.75% rate range at year end (December 14), versus a 31.3% probability of a range of 3, 25 and 3.5. %.
–
