For the Democratic Party, the 2019 European elections had been a Waterloo in a red fort like Emilia-Romagna, where the League achieved a historic victory: the center-right overcame the center-left coalition by 7%. At the Regionals last Sunday, however, despite many polls giving the two candidate governors Stefano Bonaccini (Pd) and Lucia Borgonzoni (Lega) practically on a par, things went very differently, given that the dem coalition recovered 14 points compared at the 2019 European Championships. The great comeback of the center-left was a question of sentiment, of reference to the political roots of the territory, but a key factor was decisive in this dynamic: «The voters of the M5S moved en bloc, voting for the Pd and for Bonaccini ». It is the heart of the analysis carried out by the Cattaneo Institute, which photographed the electoral flows comparing European 2019 and Regional 2020: on average, two voters out of three disappointed by the Movement veered on Pd and Bonaccini. In short, an “anti Salvini” voting dynamic, also amplified in part by the separate vote.
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Decisive third forces
“The analysis we conducted on four cities (Forlì, Ferrara, Parma, Ravenna) highlights the decisive role of the Five Stars on the outcome of the vote – write Marta Regalia, Marco Valbruzzi and Salvatore Vassallo -. The two candidates have almost filled up their respective electorates, so the choices made by third-party voters – especially the M5S – have proved decisive ». Many pentastellated voters (71.5% in Forlì, 62.7% in Parma, 48.1% in Ferrara) have chosen Bonaccini’s candidacy and only a minority has decided to opt for the M5S candidate (Simone Benini ) or for Borgonzoni. The “left” factor was also relevant in the comeback: the political profile held by Stefano Bonaccini was able to attract those votes that, probably, another candidate for governor would not have been able to win. The strong increase in voter turnout, given in hand, was recorded above all in large centers (in Bologna the record with almost 71% turnout), where the consensus for the center-left increased so significantly as to prove decisive on the result the final.
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Contendable region
Almost all the center-right lists have achieved a positive result, both in absolute and percentage terms, with the only exception of Forza Italia. In fact, Berlusconi’s party has collected only 2.6% of the votes, losing over 45 thousand votes and almost 6 percentage points compared to the previous Regionals. Both the League and the Brothers of Italy, on the other hand, recorded significant growth. “Salvini’s party went from 19.4% to 31.9% – highlight the researchers from Cattaneo -, increasing the consensus by over 457 thousand votes. Similarly, the party led by Giorgia Meloni has grown by 6.7 points over the past six years, going from 1.9% in 2014 to the current 8.6% “. Overall, the center-right coalition garnered more votes than the candidate for the regional presidency, reaching 45.4%, with a gap of just 2.7 points compared to the center-left side. Finally, the structure of the political division of the region remains clear, “with the more urbanized areas along the Via Emilia, where the electorate in favor of the center-left remains a majority or returns to prevail, and the peripheral or mountain areas in which the opposite occurs”. A phenomenon now so relevant, which leads Cattaneo’s researchers to affirm without doubt that, despite Sunday’s victory, “Emilia-Romagna is no longer a” red “region and remains contestable”.
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Forza Italia’s exploit in Calabria
In Calabria Jole Santelli, a candidate of Forza Italia and supported by the whole center, won with 55.3%. Berlusconi’s party was the protagonist of an exploit (12.3%), establishing itself as the first coalition party shortly before the League (which halved the votes). In a very divided situation, the Democratic Party, while taking a sound defeat with Pippo Callipo (30.4%), has established itself as the first party ever (15.2%). While the Movement, in two years, has gone from 43 to 7 percent.
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January 27, 2020 (change January 27, 2020 | 11:19 pm)
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