Intended Head of Macroeconomic Analysis Department a Oxford EconomicsIn May, the global economy faces a severe recession, especially in developed countries, but it will not be at the recession levels seen during the global financial crisis or the Corona pandemic.
Ben May said, in an interview with Al-Arabiya today, Wednesday: ‘Our expectations at Oxford Economics are worse than the prevailing views on the growth of the global economy next year. We expect more weakness and a worse recession, but if we look into historical experiences, this recession will be limited and smaller” than the average of previous periods in history, and will not be a repeat of the level of deflation we have witnessed during the pandemic or the global financial crisis, and therefore it is not it’s a good year, nor is it a bad year.
He added that there is a combination of factors behind the recession, including high inflation, which puts pressure on household consumption and real income and leads to reduced spending, as well as policies to tighten rates during all year round that takes time for its impact on the economy must be truly embodied, and this impact on the economy will increase during 2023, and those are the factors that push the economy into recession in the short term.
And continued the head of the macroeconomic analysis department of Oxford Economics: “But we do not expect a sharp contraction like the global financial crisis because we do not expect to see the state of imbalance that has worsened, at the same time we expect an easing of the supply chain issues and a drop in inflation and so we will see some economies return to growth over the semester.” the second next year.
Ben May said that Europe is one of the regions that will suffer in the short term due to the energy crisis, while the situation will be very difficult for the industrial sector.
He added that the performance of advanced economies in Europe will not be positive in the short term and that the US could enter a recession later than Europe, and therefore the US could perform relatively better in the short term.
The head of Oxford Economics’ macroeconomic analysis department predicted that emerging economies will fare better, as they will see growth slow down, but to a lesser extent than developed economies.
He said that China will not historically see strong growth, but it will be one of the few economies to see a recovery in the coming year due to the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, which will positively affect economic activity during 2023 despite the great uncertainty about this matter.
