Table of Contents
- 1 A market worth $400 billion.
- 2 Also read in BUSINESS INSIDER
- 3 Billionaires in the race for human brains
- 4 Commercial within five years
- 5 How do you foresee BCI technology blurring the lines between human capability and technological enhancement, and what ethical considerations should guide this evolution?
In the Morgan Stanley report “Brain Computer Interface Primer: The Next Big MedTech Opportunity?”, which appeared last month, analysts assume that BCI systems will be introduced to the market by within five years.
“Our data shows that by 2035, revenue from BCI system input procedures will be just over USD 1.5 billion. They will also reach an annual growth rate of over USD 500 million in 2036 and an annual growth rate of $1 billion by 2041.” – the report says. Analysts they argue that these are very similar numbers and several neurotechnology companies are already trying to achieve the best positions in the industry.
A market worth $400 billion.
Morgan Stanley thinks so the total addressable market (TAM – Total Addressable Market) will be worth USD 400 billion.., If we take into account both the sale of certain products and services. TAM is calculated by multiplying the total number of potential customers by the average income per customer, although in this case it would be better to write: patient.
Brain computer interfaces differ in form and method, which is why the authors of the report divided BCIs into two types of products.
First, we have “BCI enablement”, ie systems enabling certain behaviorseg moving the mouse cursor on the screen. Second, they are too “Preventive BCI”which prevents an undesirable event, eg an epileptic seizure or depression.
In addition, Morgan Stanley experts have also divided BCI applications in the healthcare sector into two categories: early TAM and intermediate TAM. The market, known early as TAM, includes people with “severe high vital deficiency and selected changes of neurological conditions such as epilepsy and depression.” Authors they expect these patients to be the first to receive BCIs ready.
In addition, there is also an intermediate TAM, ie a market that includes people with moderate impairment of the upper limbs and severe impairment of the lower limbs. In the United States alone, there are approximately 2.8 million early TAM patients and an additional 6.8 million in the intermediate TAM market. Together, these two groups make up about 400 billion USD. potential income if we take into account implantation procedures. It is worth adding that the analysis does not include possible additional costs, such as hardware replacement cycles or likely recurring revenue from software (subscription).
Although USD 400 billion This is a huge market, but it is expected to remain limited for the first 20 years – say the report’s authors. So it will take a long time before BCIs become popular.
Initial applications will help people “with motor neurone disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (40,000 and 30,000 people), spinal cord injury (300,000), stroke (900,000), multiple sclerosis (1 million), cerebral palsy (500,000), limb amputation (2.5). million), epilepsy (3 million) and depression (21 million, including 2.5 million with severe treatment).
Billionaires in the race for human brains
Elon Musk is the co-founder of Neuralink, probably the most popular BCI group in the world. In June he wrote on X that “there will be no phones in the future, only Neuralinks”:
Musk’s company, which has been operating since 2016, is already valued at $8 billion. It has also made significant progress, including successful surgeryhowever It was not without obstacles.
However, Neuralink is not the only company developing BCI systems. It is worth noting that other groups are also supported by billionaires.
Synchron, a company that implants a chip through blood vessels (a less invasive method), recently received Series C funding, where funding for development was provided by, among others, Microsoft Co-Founder Bill Gates, as well as Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. It is still a relatively young company, valued at $400 million.
Peter Thiel, co-founder of Palantir and a well-known investor, also provided money for BCI, but he decided on the Blackrock Neurotech project, a company valued at about USD 350 million. German billionaire Christian Angermayer is also an investor and board member of Blackrock Neurotech.
Another market player is Precision Neuroscience, an American BCI company that allows the collection of neural data without entering the brain.. His main product is the Layer 7 Cortical Interface, which consists of a thin layer of micro-electrodes that adhere to the surface of the brain, collecting much more data than traditional methods. Precision Neuroscience focuses on the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, such as spinal cord injuries, strokes, and neurodegenerative diseases, including amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and craniocerebral injury. The co-founder of the company is Benjamin Rapoport, who was previously associated with Neuralink.
He also works on the market Paradromics, another American BCI company. It will begin clinical trials of implants in 2025. The company’s technology, called Connexus Direct Data Interface, is designed to convert brain signals into speech and movement in real time. This is particularly important for people suffering from paralysis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) or spinal cord injury. Paradromics aims to solve health problems that affect people by offering “medical devices that have the potential to be the first line of treatment for a variety of neurological conditions. ” Paradromics implants are wirelessly powered and do not require frequent charging.
Also check: It happened! Elon Musk’s company has implanted a chip into the human brain
Commercial within five years
Commercial treatments using BCI are expected to be available within five years. Companies developing these systems say they won’t be cheap – especially at first. But they recommend thinking about it like this: it is the cost of one or two wages, but the person then gets an appropriate level of independence and economic self-sufficiency, so it is a profitable investment.
Author: Grzegorz Kubera, journalist at Business Insider Polska
2024-11-24 19:42:00
#Elon #Musks #Neuralink #isnt #Bill #Gates #Jeff #Bezos #billionaires #investing #brain #computer #interfaces
How do you foresee BCI technology blurring the lines between human capability and technological enhancement, and what ethical considerations should guide this evolution?
## Open-Ended Interview Questions on Brain-Computer Interfaces
This article discusses brain-computer interfaces (BCI) and their potential impact, highlighting the work of Elon Musk’s Neuralink and Paradromics. Here are some interview questions divided into thematic sections:
**I. Technological Advancements and Potential:**
* The article mentions that commercial BCI treatments are expected within five years. What are the major technological advancements that have made this timeline possible?
* How do you see BCI technology evolving in the next decade? What new applications and possibilities do you foresee?
* Paradromics aims to create “medical devices that have the potential to be the first line of treatment for a variety of neurological conditions.” What specific neurological conditions do you believe BCI could revolutionize treatment for?
**II. Ethical and Societal Implications:**
* The article touches upon the cost of BCI treatments. Do you think access to this technology should be equitable, and if so, how can we ensure that?
* What are the potential ethical dilemmas surrounding BCI, such as data privacy, security, and the possibility of misuse? How can we mitigate these risks?
* Some people argue that BCI could enhance human capabilities beyond what is considered “natural.” Do you think this raises ethical concerns, and if so, how should we approach this issue?
**III. Investment and Market Landscape:**
* This article focuses on Elon Musk’s Neuralink and Bill Gates’ and Jeff Bezos’ interest in BCI. What is driving this interest from high-profile billionaires?
* Beyond Neuralink and Paradromics, what other companies or research institutions are making significant contributions to the field of BCI?
* What factors do you think will be crucial for the successful commercialization of BCI technology?
**IV. Personal Reflections and Future Outlook:**
* How would you personally feel about having a BCI implant? What are your hopes and concerns?
* What do you think is the most important thing for the public to understand about BCI technology?
* Looking ahead, how do you envision BCI impacting our lives and society as a whole in the long run?
These open-ended questions aim to stimulate a thoughtful and multifaceted discussion on the exciting and complex realm of brain-computer interfaces.
