The success of OpeAI’s ChatGPT chatbot has made the topic of artificial intelligence relevant again. One of the first investors in the organization is Elon Musk. Although he has withdrawn from it, the billionaire also maintains skepticism towards AI technology.
“Superintelligence – a form of artificial intelligence (AI) smarter than humans – could create an ‘immortal dictator“, the billionaire warned a few years ago.
“The least scary future I can think of is one where we’ve at least democratized AI, because if one company or small group of people managed to develop a god-like digital superintelligence, they could take over the worldMusk said.
“At least when you have an evil dictator, that person will die. But for AI, there will be no death. He will live forever. And then we’ll have an immortal hypercapable dictator from whom we’ll never be able to escape“, adds the billionaire.
Most AI researchers surveyed expect machines to eventually be able to compete with humans in intelligence, although there is no consensus on when this is likely to happen.
In a survey of the 100 most cited authors in the field of artificial intelligence as of May 2013, it is clear when artificial intelligence is expected to reach or surpass human abilities within this century.
10% of scientists expect this to happen by 2024. 50% are confident that this will happen by 2050. 90% of researchers believe that the capabilities of AI and humans will be equal by 2070.
Respondents assigned an average probability of 50% to the possibility that machine superintelligence would be invented within 30 years of the invention of human-level machine intelligence.
A 2018 study of 352 machine learning researchers found that by 2060, human and artificial intelligence are expected to be on par.
These are all predictions and assumptions. However, they indicate the sentiment among scientists in the sector. The expectation is that the creation of truly capable and even super-capable artificial intelligence is possible within this century.
Advances in technology are making Elon Musk’s warnings relevant again.
