Very low temperatures are creeping across the country this week. According to analysts, this could send the price of electricity above two kroner per kilowatt hour.
Photo: Paul Kleiven / NTBPublished: Published:
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Energy analyst at Volue Tor Reier Lilleholt tells E24 that he expects increased electricity prices from Friday.
– From the level we see today, at almost just under 70 øre per kilowatt-hour, and up to 90 øre. There is no dramatic increase in that sense, he says.
Lilleholt explains that the prices will vary a lot depending on which area you are looking at. In the north, where prices over time have been well below the south, the cold can push prices up.
– The prices in the north will be close to what you see in the south at around 80 to 90 øre per kilowatt hour, he says.
– Will the snowfall have a say in the short or long term?
– It is very important where the snow falls. The one on the coast has no value, but there is a lot of snow inland as well. The snow has to melt before it has an effect on the price. It will help in the long run that this snow melts and fills up the magazines somewhat.
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The cold can be decisive
Power analyst at Volt Power Analytics, Olav Botnen tells E24 that prices may be high next week.
– We believe in area prices of around 70 to 100 øre per kilowatt hour for southern Norway from Thursday. Next week, the price may fluctuate between NOK 1 and 2, depending on how cold and windy it will be on the continent and here.
Kraftanalykter i Volt Power Analytics, Olav Botnen. Photo: Volt Power Analytics
Botnen goes on to say that trading in the power market priced the first three months of the year at approximately 110 øre per kilowatt-hour for the southern part of Norway during Christmas. He believes it can serve as a good forecast for the average price over the next 3 months
– Today’s weather forecasts open for a slightly milder solution in both places for next week. If it succeeds, we can instead get southern Norwegian prices of just under NOK 1 per kWhkWhKilowatt hour. So in other words, there is great uncertainty in the weather that dominates the power price outlook these days, he says.
Lilleholt says that the general weather pattern indicates that it will be much colder.
– But there is such a good balance in the system that you can handle more cold, says the analyst.
Although the price is generally not expected to be at the levels we saw last winter, individual days and individual hours can be expensive.
– The cold is quite dramatic. People must be aware that individual hours can be very high, and that days can be high, he says.
Tor Reier Lilleholt in Volue Photo: Seagust
– Very satisfactory gas situation
Although the cold is on the way and the consumption of electricity is increasing, this does not mean shock prices. Norway imports electricity from Europe where the wind is good. This means higher production and lower prices.
From Friday, less wind is expected, which will contribute to increased prices, according to Lilleholt.
– Also, gas is generally cheaper out there, he says.
The bottom of the Volt says that the gas reservoirs are well filled.
– The gas situation is very satisfactory. The warehouses are now 86.5 percent full. It is among the highest observations, measured in historical perspective. The flow of gas from Norway and LNG gas from ships is good at the moment, he says.
However, the situation can change if it gets cold for a long time.
– Then the gas quickly disappears from the warehouses in a situation with a high heating demand. There are also a number of risk elements in the Red Sea that can make it more difficult to get the LNG gas out. , he says.
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2024-01-02 20:39:59
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