The energy bill threatens to be a tough one for at least a few months. After all, the market assumes that electricity and gas prices will remain extremely high for six months and longer.
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Prices for natural gas and electricity are currently at historic highs. The general boom in commodity prices in combination with historically high CO2 prices and rising demand due to the economic recovery are causing extremely high prices, says Matthias Detremmerie, electricity trader for energy supplier Elindus.
For example, the average electricity price on the short-term market in the holiday month of July was more than 76 euros per MWh: just below the peak price of November 2018 and the most expensive July ever for electricity.
But traders also see little improvement in the months to come, on the contrary. Anyone who buys electricity today that will be delivered in September will pay 100 euros/MWh on the wholesale market. For the first quarter of next year, that will even be 108 euros per MWh. Only towards the summer of 2022 will the market see prices drop somewhat.
The situation is even more extreme for natural gas. For example, more than 45 euros/MWh is charged on the short-term market: an absolute record, and this in a period when households use virtually no gas.
The extremely high prices on the wholesale markets ultimately also end up on the energy bills of households and companies. Especially those who have a variable contract are likely to feel this in their wallet.
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