Electoral College: The Possibility of a Tie in the 2024 Election
With a mere 538 Electoral College votes in play, the prospect of a tie in the upcoming 2024 presidential election is more than just theoretical. Historically, tied elections have had a profound impact on U.S. politics, with a notable precedent set in 1800 between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
The 1800 Election: A Historical Context
The tie in 1800 emerged from a failure of coordination among the Democratic-Republicans, leading to the country’s first contingent election, which was decided in the House of Representatives. This significant event highlights how elections can pivot on a few decisive votes.
Could a Tie Occur in 2024?
While the likelihood of a tie in this year’s presidential election is moderate, it remains a possibility worth considering. A plausible scenario could unfold if the presumptive Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, manages to win critical states while losing others. For instance, if she secures wins in key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and a single electoral vote from Nebraska but fails to clinch Pennsylvania and Georgia, the final tally could end in a 269-269 deadlock.
Explore various tied-election scenarios at 270 to Win.
The Process Following a Tie
In the event of a 269-269 stalemate, or if a third-party candidate interrupts the electoral vote tally, the next process is termed a “contingent election.” Per the U.S. Constitution’s 12th Amendment, newly sworn-in Congress members hold the responsibility of selecting the President, while the Vice President is chosen by the Senate.
Understanding Contingent Elections
This unique electoral process was established to address situations like the one seen in 1800. It illustrates how critical a few electoral votes can prove to the election outcome, elevating the significance of the upcoming election.
For visual insights and implications of a potential tie, check out this detailed analysis on what a tie could look like in maps.
