Elections with many unknowns: the final predictions for the winners on November 14 – Elections 2021

Another fragmented parliament with many unknowns about the distribution of seats and the possibility of forming a governing majority and an almost certain second round of presidential elections with a significant advantage of the current head of state.

This is the summary of the forecasts of most of the sociological agencies three days before the vote on November 14, which will elect deputies and a president at the same time for the first time.

The third National Assembly elections of the year will be key for the country after two unsuccessful attempts to form a government and in the complicated situation of economic problems, combined with the worst wave of COVID so far. The main problem after them is again the provision of a stable parliamentary back for a new government. Given the expected complex configuration, this will require agreements between three or four formations, whether it is a cabinet nominated by the former GERB rulers, whose forecasts give first place with 22-24% of the vote, or some so-called “parties of change”.

The golden second place

The most difficult at the moment seems to be the answer to the question which will be the second largest parliamentary group to receive the mandate to form a government if GERB fails to gather support in the first attempt.

The final forecasts are for a fragile advantage of the new project “We continue the change” (from 14.8 to 16.5%) over the BSP (in the range 12.1 – 16%). However, sociologists emphasize that the differences are extremely small and the outcome of this race is difficult to predict. It will be resolved in the last hours before the vote, and voters may be influenced by factors such as coronavirus infection and machine voting.

The most important questions and answers about the upcoming elections

The big surprise of this year’s elections – the “There is such a people” party of TV presenter Slavi Trifonov, seems to be the biggest loser in Sunday’s vote. Four months after the July election, when she won first place, her predictions put her between fourth and sixth.

However, the results of “There is such a people”, “Democratic Bulgaria” and the MRF are too close and the chances for relocations are great, sociologists comment. If the predictions come true, Trifonov’s party and the BSP will hold the key to the next government, because without them a majority will not be possible.

The association “Stand Up.bg! We Are Coming” led by Maya Manolova, which participates in the last two parliaments, so far remains below the 4% barrier, having almost equal results with the nationalist formation “Vazrazhdane”.

Last minute activity and decisions

Three days before the election, sociologists report that most parties have consolidated their strong supporters and a battle for voters on the periphery is imminent. This means that low turnout will be convenient for traditional parties that have regular voters, while high turnout will “play” against them. Both people who say they are determined to vote but are still hesitant about who they are, and those who have not yet decided whether to go to the polls, can be a source of growth.

Agencies are also moderate in their expectations for Sunday’s turnout. It is not relevant to the parliamentary vote, but it is key to the presidential election – for it to be successful, at least half plus one of the Bulgarians with the right to vote must have voted. For Sunday’s vote, that means 3.35 million people. Only when this condition is met will it be taken into account whether some of the candidates have received more than 50% of the votes, or the winner will be determined in the second round in a week.

The agencies’ forecasts for the activity vary between 47 and 58 percent, and the main reasons for this are how the number of expected voters is measured on Sunday – whether as a share of those with formal voting rights or those actually residing in Bulgaria with voting rights (about 5.5 million)