The first polls to come out of the polls these German legislative elections, this Sunday, September 26, announced a result much closer than expected: nevertheless the Social Democrats of Olaf Scholz, of the SPD, were slightly ahead in front of the CDU-CSU. This narrow victory is one of the surprises of this post-Merkel election. Here are others.
Armin Laschet’s rise, but insufficient
The curator, Merkel’s dolphin, dragged the images for a long time showing him laughing during his visit to the victims of the floods of July, in its region, North Rhine-Westphalia. The one who took the head of the CDU / CSU, in January, made the whole campaign behind his center-left rival, Olaf Scholz, the leader of the SPD.
But over the past few days, all polls have noted a rise in voting intentions in his favor. Armin Laschet was more offensive. In particular, he stirred the fear of seeing the radical left Die Linke lead the country in a grand social and environmental coalition if the SPD wins. Die Linke wants to get out of NATO, he hammered. This party must not enter the government
.
In Germany, attached to this reassuring shield led by the Americans, this speech was able to carry. He also had stronger support from Merkel at the end of the campaign. But as the counting progresses, we can clearly see that this end-of-campaign effort will not have been enough. According to the results available around 8 p.m., the CDU had lost 8.3% compared to 2017.
Die Linke, at 5% or below?
This is the other suspense of this German election night. The radical left, led by the duo Janine Wissler, who has represented Die Linke in Parliament since 2009 and the veteran of the veteran party Dietmar Bartsch, was not guaranteed to pass the 5% mark, according to initial estimates. However, you have to reach it to be represented in the German Parliament.
But around 8 pm, the results showed that the far left had fallen by 4.2% compared to 2017. The results of this party are eagerly awaited. Because he could become a partner for environmentalists and social democrats.
The Greens in a good position to take Berlin
According to the first estimates of the channel ARD, the candidate of the Greens Bettina Jarasch was in the possibility of stealing the capital, Berlin, to the social democratic mayor Michael Müller. 23.5% for environmentalists against 21.5% for the SPD of candidate Franziska Giffey. It will be a long evening until the end result and you will get very little sleep, but it will be worth it
, reacted Bettina Jarasch, surprised by these good results.
Currently, Berlin is ruled by a coalition SPD, Die Linke (radical left) and Greens, but the mayor is a social democrat.
The next coalition will have to be three
One thing seems fairly certain from reading these first results, although very partial. The next coalition cannot be made up of two parties. Only an alliance of the social democrats and the conservatives of the CDU / CSU – the current coalition – makes it possible to have the necessary majority of seats in Parliament to govern. However, Olaf Scholz, the leader of the SPD, who seems to turn in the lead, has already said that he wanted to see the party ofAngela Merkel, in opposition
after this election.
In this case, a coalition with the only environmental party, with its 15%, will not be enough. The SPD will have to negotiate either with the liberals of Christian Lindner, the FPD, around 11%. Or Die Linke, if the radical left qualifies – 5% for now.
With the Liberals, discussions are likely to last, they have the political program least compatible with that of the ecologists by Annalena Baerbock! For the record, the last coalition negotiations took six months, in 2017. The real farewell to Angela Merkel is likely to last.
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