Today, the German far-right is expected to “conquer” Brandenburg, the historic state where Berlin is located, after its triumph in the elections of the states of Thuringia and Saxony on September 1.
Polls give the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party up to 29% in today’s Brandenburg elections, with the Social Democrats (SPD) second on 26%. The Christian Democratic Party (CDU) is expected to come third with 16.7% and fourth with 15% its newly formed leftist nationalist party Zara Wagenknechtwho came third in the elections of Thuringia and Saxony.
The gap filled by the AfD
After the reunification of Germany in 1990, the Social Democrats did not really manage to take root in the eastern ex-communist Germany. The German political scientist Benjamin Hene argues in the French “L’ Express” that in the eastern German states the SPD is viewed as a party imported from the West that does not listen to the issues and concerns of the citizens.
The AfD filled exactly this gap: there are villages in the former East German states where the AfD percentage is as high as 50%. Its supporters, adds Henne, make an income through sports clubs, cultural associations, financing for example the dances of the Fire Department.
However, the case of Brandenburg differs from that of Thuringia and Saxony. And despite the AfD’s looming lead in the polls, it is highly likely, according to analysts, that the SPD will continue to govern Brandenburg in coalition with the CDU and the Greens – if they can muster the 5% required to enter the Parliament.
Test for SPD
Today’s election will be a test for the SPD, which has ruled Brandenburg continuously since 1990, the era of German reunification, a phenomenon not seen in any other German state during the same period. Brandenburg is the tenth most populous of Germany’s 16 states, with just 2.6 million inhabitants, of whom 12% are of foreign origin – compared to 30% in the rest of Germany. Also, in Brandenburg there was no economic depression and abandonment of the countryside, phenomena which were observed in other states of the former East Germany after reunification.
The construction of the new Berlin international hub airport opened in 2020, as well as the Tesla electric vehicle factory in 2022, which was built near the new airport, also played an important role in the continued growth of the Vandenburg economy. This is its first car manufacturing plant Elon Musk in Europe, which employs 7,000 workers from 50 countries. Tesla is now the largest employer in Brandenburg.
Impact on the government
Regardless of Brandenburg’s idiosyncrasies, the poor electoral performance of the parties in the governing coalition under the chancellor Olaf Solz (SPD, CDU and Liberals) in the elections of the three states of eastern Germany (Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg) weaken the German government. And if the scenario of the early termination of the governing coalition before the federal elections of September 2025 seems rather improbable, the discussions about the next day have already begun.
Since Scholz’s three-party coalition currently represents only a third of the German electorate, the most likely scenario for the government that will emerge from the 2025 federal election is a coalition with the Christian Democrats and the Christian Socialists (CSU), the version of the Christian Democrats in Bavaria, who, however, in order to govern will have to cooperate with the Social Democrats and the Greens.
In practice this means that the CDU will have to shift towards the Centre, even though the party’s current line is further to the right on immigration and security issues. In this context, the right wing of the SPD could facilitate an alliance with the CDU, adopting more conservative positions on the specific issues. The recent decision by the Scholz government to “close” Germany’s land borders for six months and reintroduce border controls in the Schengen Area is indicative of this trend.
It should be noted, however, that despite the hardening of the German government’s stance on immigration, a privileged field for the anti-immigration populist rhetoric of the Far Right, Berlin recently signed an agreement with Kenya to attract immigrants from this African country, who have special skills. Chancellor Scholz welcomed the agreement, emphasizing its benefits in terms of covering the labor shortage in Germany (experts point out that the country needs 400,000 workers immediately), which, as he stressed, “will be felt in the coming years.” Germany has signed similar treaties with India, Georgia and Morocco and is expected to sign with Uzbekistan, which Scholz is due to visit soon.
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