Welcome to this weekly update in the run-up to the US presidential election on November 3. With this week: in a tidal wave of new polls, voters were questioned, among other things, about the increasingly grim BLM protests. Will Donald Trump be able to catch up with Joe Biden by promising law and order?
My name is Matthijs le Loux. I write about foreign news for NU.nl and have been reporting on American politics since 2014. In this update I give you an overview of the big news of the week, but I mainly cover less obvious developments and ‘side-paths’ and I share facts, interesting sources and short analyzes to provide you with more context.
This week, we first look at the deadly shootings surrounding the Portland and Kenosha protests. Then we immerse ourselves – at popular request – once again in the wonderful world of opinion polls. They paused during the party conventions, but this week a wave of new voter surveys came in.
Does President Trump’s focus on public order appeal to the voter? Was Joe Biden able to keep his lead? I have the answers for you.
Finally, you can read in the news overview what other American news NU.nl brought this week.
The atmosphere around the BLM demonstrations is becoming increasingly tense in a number of places.
Demonstrators and counter-protesters fight each other and militias decide to assist the police on their own to prevent arson, vandalism and looting. More and more firearms appear around the demonstrations.
Warnings that this is driving escalation have come true with deadly shootings in Portland and Kenosha. At the same time, the protests have become a major theme in the election race. President Trump says a vote for Biden will only add to anarchy and he is the only one who can restore order. In turn, the Democrat hit this week a speech for the first time hard back against that claim.
On Tuesday I wrote an overview of the events in Kenosha and Portland.
The man who killed right-wing militia member Aaron Danielson in Portland, 48-year-old Michael Reinoehl, said in an interview with Vice News that he fired in self-defense because he thought the Patriot Prayer member wanted to stab him and a friend. Shortly after talking to Vice became Reinoehl shot dead by agents of the federal US Marshals Service.
The former soldier was an Antifa supporter and volunteered to protect BLM demonstrations. He is the first member of the loose collective of activists involved in deadly violence in the US in decades.
Polls, polls and, to unlearn it, more polls
The past few months have not looked good for President Trump. Biden was long ahead in the polls, and US voters were particularly dissatisfied with Trump’s approach to the corona crisis.
Four polls published Wednesday showed that Biden has maintained his lead, but has shrunk a little.
Trump versus Biden polls (percentage point difference), Sept. 2
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The Democratic candidate’s lead in the swing states also appears to have held. In a poll of Monmouth University in Pennsylvania it dropped from 13 points in July to 3 points, which is within the margin of error. Biden is better off in Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin: in polls from Fox News did he keep the lead he had or even expand it. Trump won in those three states in 2016.
Traditionally, the candidates of both parties get a small boost in the polls thanks to the conventions. This time it seems particularly modest: Biden’s popularity figures barely showed any movement and Trump got at best (depending on the chosen measurement method) a push of 2 points.
Some commentators think the failure to do so convention boost has to do with the viewing figures, which were roughly a third lower for both parties than in 2016. Biden’s acceptance speech attracted 24.6 million TV viewers, Trump’s 23.8 million.
It is common for the candidates to get closer in the final phase of the campaign. Rarer is the re-election of a sitting president who falls behind in the polls shortly after the conventions: Trump would be the first to do that since Harry Truman in 1948.
Furthermore, NU.nl reported this week …
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Over a thousand students from the University of Alabama have tested positive for it coronavirus, since the lectures started there two weeks ago, it was announced on Sunday. According to the university, most of the infections occurred during social activities on the densely populated campus.
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The 41-year-old black American Daniel Prude died of asphyxiation in March, after being detained for wandering the streets in a psychotic state. That happened in Rochester, New York. The case did not receive much attention, until Prude’s family Wednesday shocked images of his arrest made public. The seven agents involved continued to work until last Thursday were suspended. The family wants them to be prosecuted for murder. According to authorities, the investigation is still ongoing.
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The US steps from WHO on July 6, 2021, the US State Department reported in a statement on Thursday detailing the announced exit. Money earmarked for the health organization will be distributed among other UN programs.
Trump’s ‘Law and Order’ offensive doesn’t really seem to get off the ground yet
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Trump visits a camera shop that burned down during the Kenosha protests. The man proposed by the president as the owner turned out to be the former manager. The current owner did not support Trump’s visit and thanked you for the honor.
In an effort to turn the tide, the Republicans have chosen a course that became visible during the party convention. They target the BLM protests and portray it as an anarchist uprising. Biden and the Democrats would walk the leash of the far left, plunging American cities into an orgy of violence and crime. Trump, one Law and Order-president, is the only one who can save the country.
With the situation in Kenosha derailed after a cop shot Jacob Blake in the back, Democrats began to worry. Using civil unrest and fear of crime to bring down the political opponent is a well-established Republican electoral strategy that has won Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, among others, in the past. It is also no unknown method for Trump: he promised to end it at his inauguration in 2017 ‘this American carnage‘ of a suspected crime wave among illegal immigrants.
According to a recent poll by Politico/Morning Consult Fewer Americans support the protests in Kenosha after Blake’s injury (49 percent) than those following George Floyd’s death in Minneapolis in early June (57 percent). The number of people outright disapproving the protests grew from 23 to 32 percent.
That picture is confirmed by other polls. Against Yahoo News/YouGov 54 percent of those surveyed said the protests have gotten out of hand. In an investigation of The Economist/YouGov 41 percent of respondents labeled the demonstrators in Kenosha as “mostly peaceful,” while 40 percent called them “mostly violent.” At the beginning of June this was 54 percent and 31 percent.
Still, it doesn’t appear that the diminished support for the Kenosha demonstrations translates into more support for President Trump. In a YouGov-peiling Among 4,900 Americans last Wednesday, 56 percent said they expected the violence surrounding the protests to get worse if Trump is re-elected. For Biden this was 23 percent.
Against Quinnipiac University 58 percent said they think Biden would tackle race inequality better, versus 38 percent for Trump – similar rates to those from a poll by CNN/SSRS (56/38 percent).
Thanks for your attention! For the next two editions of the Election Update, I will leave you in the capable hands of colleague Joost Nederpelt, in connection with my vacation. Do you have questions about the US Presidential Race, a suggested topic or other comments? Send an email to [email protected].
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