Election results 2020. Prof. Mikołaj Cześnik: it is the staff of President Duda that has something to think about [WYWIAD]

• According to political scientist associated with the SWPS University in Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski must mobilize voters Szymon Hołownia and Krzysztof Bosak
• The former – “spectacular gestures”, i.e. acceptance of the proposals presented by Hołownia. – Every tenth of them was a PiS voter, tired of political reality
• The latter – arguing that the “normal right, and not the PiS” must appear on the Polish political scene.
• – President Duda certainly did not help public television, which constantly depreciated the Confederation – explains the expert

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Election results 2020. A lone president?

Kamil Turecki: The second round is ahead of us. What was to be expected?

Dr hab. Mikołaj Cześnik, prof. SWPS University: There is no surprise, especially if we take into account recent polls in which Rafał Trzaskowski’s position grew.

What can we read from the exit-poll results?

It seems that Andrzej Duda has as many voters as PiS in the parliamentary elections in 2019, i.e. about 7.5-8 million people. The turnout is also similar.

Can this status quo be considered the success of the president’s camp?

Certainly remained unsatisfied. The more so that huge resources were involved, that there would be more votes and that they would win in the first round. On the other hand, given the pandemic and its effects, the result achieved is a certain success. However, there is not much voter movement in either direction and this is the problem of the president who was lonely.

Lonely?

It is symptomatic that no one from PiS party tops has been with the president for longer, except in rare cases. At the rallies sometimes his wife would appear and that would be enough.

What it comes from?

They don’t seem to want to hurt him. I am surprised that even former Prime Minister Beata Szydło did not appear in the president’s environment. You do not need to surround yourself with party hawks, and you just need pigeons. It wasn’t even done. My guess is that it was about cutting off and showing that he was an independent president, president of all Poles, not Law and Justice.

Battle for votes. Hołownia and Bosak’s success

The second round is ahead of us. This means that most voters said ‘no’ to the presidency of Andrzej Duda. What must the incumbent president do to tip the scales to his side?

55-58 percent of 19 million voters did not vote for President Duda. He will have to attract those who have not moved to the polls. It won’t be easy. Those who were to vote for him have already done so. Mobilizing non-mobilized is difficult. It’s easier to demobilize opponents.

Why couldn’t Duda win more votes?

His staff exaggerated with sticking Rafał Trzaskowski to the Civic Coalition.

And that’s it?

Picking up voters is difficult, especially when playing with an antagonizing card.

So the number 30 is higher than the number 40?

Certainly the number 58 is higher than 42. This was emphasized by Trzaskowski himself. There is no re-election in the first round. It’s a fact. Anyway, re-election in the Polish presidential election is very difficult. Only Aleksander Kwasniewski managed to do it in 2000. It was usually the case that if the current president entered the second round, he would lose it. This happened with Lech Wałęsa and Bronisław Komorowski. In this sense, we can say that 30 is more than 40, because President Duda is facing a big challenge. Ski jumpers sometimes say that “they had nothing to fly away from”. Andrzej Duda may not have enough to fly away politically.

And the Confederation? After all, the right is even more to the right of PiS.

Interesting words after the announcement of the survey results said Krzysztof Bosak: that the victory and success of the Confederation must take place on the troupe of Law and Justice. Bosak’s voters are quite politicized and combine a lot. They know that support for Duda means that the Confederation will keep going up the hill.

Rafał Trzaskowski has much more room for maneuver?

He can offer Bosak more and wink at his constituents. President Duda certainly did not help public television, which constantly depreciated the Confederation.

So everything depends on Bosak’s electorate?

Certainly a lot depends on him. This, however, politicians are not able to control. The game will go on so that they stay at home. I imagine, however, that if it was the voter of Bosak who was disgusted, he still voted for Trzaskowski. Everything for something to change. The dynamics of change on the political scene favors the Confederation.

Time for spectacular gestures

Does this mean that the higher the turnout, the higher the chances of the presidency are Rafał Trzaskowski?

If 17.5-18 million people would vote again in the second round, Andrzej Duda will probably not have a good chance of being re-elected.

Why?

Szymon Hołownia’s voters are a good example. They are mostly new voters, but every tenth of them is still a PiS voter. This shows that perhaps people are tired of reality and want a kind of arbitrator who will control the parliamentary majority. This is to be a fuse that can be used at the right time. If Trzaskowski becomes president, it will be a sign of the democratic instinct of Poles who want to preserve mechanisms that guarantee political balance. Not even all PiS voters are happy with everything, and the president may slow down various legislative initiatives. So it is Duda’s staff that has something to think about.

And Trzaskowski no longer?

He should smile at the electorates of the other four candidates, especially Szymon Hołownia.

So who will the third voters vote for on the podium during the first round? He himself said that he would not tell anyone how to vote.

The vast majority of his electorate are largely educated people who are fed up with the current situation. Offending Trzaskowski will not make sense, especially if Trzaskowski makes some spectacular gestures towards them.

What gestures can these be?

Suggestions that Hołownia will present and which Trzaskowski can accept. Of these 2.5 million voters, two million can be blindly attributed to the candidate’s Civic Coalition.

Will the voters of Hołownia be determined enough to go to the polls in the second round?

Usually in the second rounds it is only random factors that prevent someone from voting again. In 2015, Kukiz earned 20 percent votes. The wave of popularity over the next two weeks made his voters support Andrzej Duda. Similarly, it can be with the Hołownia electorate, which can vote for Rafał Trzaskowski. For him, I see one threat – he must speak the voters of the other candidates in different languages.

So how should he speak to the voters of Hołownia and how to the electorate of Bosak?

In the case of the latter one has to be shown that you are an enemy of Law and Justice and that a normal right must appear on the Polish political scene, not the PiS. Special studies would have to be done on this issue. Then much more could be said. In turn, in the case of Hołownia, it must be a story about the fact that it will be different now, without an ossified party duopoly. It will be easier for Trzaskowski because, although he is a candidate of the Civic Coalition, he declared from the beginning that he wanted to cross the walls. Duda’s problem is that he was and is a party candidate. A sudden attempt to dye someone independent can take revenge in the long run. That I would fear in the place of Adam Bielan, spokesman for the president’s campaign.

Dr hab. Mikołaj Cześnik – Director of the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities, professor at the Department of Journalism at the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences in Warsaw. Political scientist.

He specializes in analyzing the functioning of political systems (in particular democracy) and how people behave in the world of politics. He deals with public opinion research and political choices.

Co-author of the book “Democracy – economy – politics. The perspective of the Polish voter” (2015) and author of many scientific publications. Project manager: “Political knowledge in Poland” and “Impact of electoral rules on the quality of local democracy in Poland”.

At the SWPS University, he teaches politics and democracy.

(KT)

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