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The red-green collaboration has had such deep cracks that it is about to disintegrate. The game’s gambler is called Vedum, writes John O. Egeland.
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Political cooperation is a complex one and demanding exercise. Especially when it comes to the division of government power. A lot should work: agreement on political guidelines and strategy, the ability to create political space for everyone in the cooperation, generosity, perseverance and leadership. The bottom line, however, is trust and loyalty. The political leaders must trust each other and stand together when the wind blows and the crises arise.
In good time before the formation of the first red-green government in 2005, extensive, confidential talks were held between Jens Stoltenberg (Labor Party), Kristin Halvorsen (SV) and Åslaug Haga (Social Democrats). This contributed to the fibers in the political fabric becoming so solid that they lasted for eight years without a break. Ahead of this autumn’s parliamentary elections, the situation on the red-green side is completely different. This is primarily due to the fact that the political balance of power has changed: the Labor Party is weaker, the Social Democrats significantly stronger while the Socialist People’s Party has been established at a higher level in the polls. The Center Party’s ambitions have risen in line with ever – new top ratings in opinion polls.
The sun is shining on SV
Must party leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum holding on to these voters, and establishing the Center Party at a new and historically higher level, requires changes in policy. Sp can no longer be a niche party for the periphery and the primary industry. The party must stand out and achieve results in much broader policy areas. Not least, it is important to keep the voters Sp has inherited from the Progress Party.
It is in this perspective that we must look at Vedum’s notch in the record when it comes to government cooperation. Here, the farmer and the political scientist from Ilseng have only one mantra: the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party must form a government together. SV will not join. All attempts to get Vedum to elaborate on what he thinks about other alternatives are stranded here. Pretending that SV does not exist is at best a bold strategy. Vedum wants a majority government of the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party, but can also settle for a minority government of the two parties. The majority for the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party is a dream with a slim foundation in reality. None of the eighteen national polls in the last two months give any majority to the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party alone. Recent regional polls in northern Norway show a significant drop of six percentage points for the Center Party, a clear breach of progress in Nordland, Troms and Finnmark.
The pressure for relief
The Center Party’s strong aversion against SV is not just tactical. In some areas, the parties are close to each other, e.g. in terms of district policy, agriculture and the EU / EEA. On the other hand, there are major contradictions in matters concerning oil, climate and nature conservation. At the same time, SV is not a soft rubber ball that can be easily pressed to change shape. SV must have clear victories, especially in climate, environment and inequality. MDG breathes Audun Lysbakken in the neck, and further out, Rødt and Bjørnar Moxnes bite.
Conductor in this rattlesnake orchestra will be Jonas Gahr Støre. If Erna Solberg loses the bourgeois majority, it will be Støre who will be commissioned to form a government. He has always been clear that the Labor Party wants SV in government. Together, the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party can act as the center of gravity in important matters. Outside, SV is a far clearer challenger in the battle for voters. In addition, Støre has pointed out a very central point: A minority government must also have a partner in order to adopt the state budget.
Politicians are fleeing the elite vaccines
These issues rejects Trygve Slagsvold Vedum with a slightly resigned shake of the head: “Jonas must answer for himself, then I must answer for myself. And then people get to choose what they want ”.
Vedum balances on a thin line in the issue of government cooperation. He admittedly closes the door for SV, but has either hidden or forgotten where the key is. After the election, Sp gets to “take the cards we get and the mandates we get, and make the best of it”, he says. The oracle from Ilseng is as deliberately ambiguous as the ancient priestesses of Delphi.
Inside the Center Party one covers nicely over the disagreement on the government question. It is put on hold until the election result is available. No one wants to create unrest and be blamed for destroying the party’s warm relations with the crowd of new voters.
Vedum and the Center Party’s pursuit of their own triumphs erodes confidence in what was once a clear red-green bloc. Some repetition of the tripartite cooperation in the Stoltenberg period is now unlikely. This means that voters will go to the polls without any clear government alternative on the red-green side. Or some realistic expectations about what policy will be pursued over the next four years.
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