El Niño Weather Phenomenon: Record Temperatures and Extreme Weather Predicted

The weather phenomenon El Niño has officially started. That’s what researchers at the American meteorological institute NOAA say. The natural phenomenon could cause record temperatures and extreme weather later this year and into 2024.

The arrival of El Niño was expected by meteorologists this year. The weather phenomenon occurs when the surface temperature of the water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator is warmer than average. This happens every two to seven years. The consequences of El Niño are not only felt in the Pacific Ocean, but all over the world. Those effects are strongest in December.

The natural phenomenon La Niña has been present for the past three years, which causes slightly lower temperatures worldwide. El Niño does the opposite in many ways: on Earth it becomes warmer than normal during such a period.

And the phenomenon often leads to extreme weather. For example, meteorologists expect much more rainfall in the south and southwest of the US this fall and winter. East Africa also usually receives more rain. Parts of South America, Asia and Australia will be affected by drought.

El Niño also influences the formation of hurricanes. Typically, the natural phenomenon reduces the likelihood of hurricanes forming over the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean, on the other hand, are more common.

The effects of the weather phenomenon on Europe are limited. It usually leads to somewhat wetter winters in Southern Europe and colder but drier winters in Northern Europe. According to the KNMI, El Niño has no demonstrable influence on winter weather in the Netherlands.

The last El Niño, in 2019, was relatively mild. During the El Niño that preceded it in 2016, the highest temperatures on earth were ever recorded. NOAA meteorologists expect the old temperature record to be broken this year or next year under the influence of the returned weather phenomenon in combination with climate change.

In this explainer from NOS op 3 we explain how El Niño arises: