It does not appear that the war in Ukraine will be decided in Russia’s favor within a few days. “We can conclude that the Russians had expected a walk-over,” says defense specialist Dick Zandee. The Ukrainian army would have been defeated in no time, it was expected.
Popular resistance with powerful leader
But the resistance from the Ukrainians turns out to be enormous. Not least because they are constantly being whipped up by President Volodimir Zelensky. “He shows himself to be a powerful president who directs the opposition. Partly because of this, there is great popular resistance.”
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Although Kiev has still not been taken, Putin could still claim the war as a success, says Frans Osinga, a special professor of war studies, commodore at the Royal Netherlands Air Force.
There is heavy fighting on the south coast. News from the southern port city of Kherson came today that the Russians have taken the city. “If the advance continues, all Ukrainian ports and coastal areas will soon be closed.” That would mean that the Russians would not necessarily have to defeat Kiev, because that way the capital would no longer have control and authority.
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That option is indeed there, Zandee agrees. “But first Odessa has to be conquered.”
It’s not that far yet. A devastating attack is expected at any moment. “If they get their hands on Odessa, the entrance to the Black Sea will be cut off.”
Split of Ukraine
Then it would be a logical step to continue to the Djnepr, a river that separates eastern Ukraine from the west. “The east would then belong to Russia, the west inevitably to the Western states.”
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People in Russia also have their reservations about this war, says Zandee. The longer the battle lasts, the more doubt grows.
Meanwhile, independent news media are being opposed left and right. Today a radio station was taken off the air for their critical coverage of the Russian invasion. The words ‘attack, invasion and war’ have been banned in Russian media reports on the situation in Ukraine. Independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta has come under fire for its front page headline: ‘Russia is bombing Ukraine’.
In the video below, Russia expert Hans van Koningsbrugge explains why Putin started the war in Ukraine in the first place.
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Pressure from Nuclear Weapons
By pressuring independent media, Putin maintains control. And he does so by occasionally letting it shine through that he still has the most important asset in his hands: nuclear weapons.
“Probably Putin is only using them as a deterrent to the West to prevent Western interference. He doesn’t need them yet for the fight in Ukraine,” Osinga said. But we must take the threat seriously. “It is a disproportionate resource, but in the hands of someone like Putin it is too risky to ignore such a threat.
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What is the most likely scenario now?
According to Osinga, Russia will likely advance slowly towards Kiev, encircling and eventually taking over that city. “They will take their time and continue to shell the city with artillery and planes. There will also be an attempt to block the arms stock from the West and cut the Ukrainians from stockpiles. The pressure on Zelensky will be increasingly increased to keep him to force a surrender. For the civilian deaths will undoubtedly continue to increase in the coming days.”
Zandee mainly sees an increase in bombing. “Particularly on the infrastructure of the government. What we see, for example, with the attack on the television tower in Kiev and the buildings of ministries that are blown up. Russia wants to weaken the functioning of the state apparatus. But I don’t see them any longer in Kiev. invade.”
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