EIC sees the Thai economy in ’64 grow 2.2% due to both domestic / foreign COVID-RED impact
On January 27, 2021 at 5:17 p.m.
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EIC cuts its forecast for Thai economic growth in 2021 to 2.2% due to COVID-19 challenges That came back because of a new epidemic both in the country and around the world, along with looking at 6 risk factors affecting the economy
Dr.Yanyong Thai Charoen Senior Executive Vice President Chief Executive Officer, Economic Intelligence Center, Siam Commercial Bank Public Company Limited revealed the results of analysis that A new outbreak of COVID-19 in many countries around the world, including Thailand, has a direct impact on the recovery of the Thai economy in 2021.
The EIC revised its GDP forecast for 2021 to 2.2% from the main reasons as follows. However, the number of foreign tourists tends to be slower than expected. Although the COVID-19 vaccination has begun, In many countries already And Thailand could allow vaccinated people to enter the country, reducing quarantine restrictions. But international travel will recover clearly only if the country of origin has already had a group immunity.
The EIC estimates that developed countries will gradually become familiar in the second quarter of 2021, while developing countries in Asia, the main tourist group of Thailand, will gradually gain familiarity from the fourth quarter. Slower than previously projected estimates, the EIC revised its 2021 foreign tourist forecast to 3.7 million, marking a recovery in the second half of the year. Especially in the fourth quarter mainly
2. The export sector tended to slow more than expected in the first half of the year due to the slowdown in global economy (soft patch) from the resumption of the COVID-19 epidemic and container shortage. And the appreciation of the baht
However, the huge stimulus was taken It has been released in many countries. More specific closures And accelerating vaccination, which will Leading to familiarity among groups, especially developed countries Will make the world economy And Thai exports recovered better in the second half of the year, with the EIC expecting a 4.0% YOY growth in exports this year.
3. In terms of domestic demand Fast data indicates a new wave of outbreaks has affected economic activity. Especially for businesses with significant face-to-face features, the EIC expects about two months to control the new outbreak. Although the impacts are not as severe as the first outbreak due to the specific city closure. And have government measures to help mitigate the impact But it would inevitably affect the economic scars problem.
Especially for SME entrepreneurs and workers in the service business that are already fragile. Overall, the recovery of the Thai economy is likely to be slow as the tourism sector, the In terms of value, the economy and employment have not yet recovered, which will make the overall economic recovery quite different between the business sectors. In addition, there are still many uncertainties and risks involved.
Risk factors to be watched in 2021 include: 1. Time to control a new outbreak, 2. A widespread delay in vaccination in Thailand 3. Economic scars that may affect financial stability through debt default. On the rise
4. Problem of domestic political stability This may affect investment confidence 5. Drought from the water level in the dam that is still lower than the historical average and 6. The baht appreciation faster than its competitors. This may affect the recovery of the export sector and international tourism.
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