Egyptian Pound: Why International Banks are Interested in its Future?

The price of the dollar fell about 4 pounds at once, after some Egyptian banks intended to offer new dollar savings certificates, with a high interest rate of up to 10%.

Dealers said this evening, Saturday, that the price of the dollar fell by 4 pounds at once on the black market, to reach 35 pounds, compared to 39 pounds in yesterday’s trading, Friday, with the stopping of the buying and selling movement.

On the other hand, whoever follows the international reports that are issued every now and then by international investment banks and research companies will feel that there is no currency in the whole world that people are interested in other than the Egyptian pound. On the pound, its position is weakening in front of other currencies.. Almost no week passes except when a report comes out that talks about the future of the pound. To the degree that makes anyone ask, I mean, there are no other currencies in the world whose price is declining, and there are no currencies that suffer from pressure, and if there is, why do international banks not answer their biography and are very interested in the Egyptian pound?.
Keep in mind that the world of economics is not a perfect world, nor is it with the transparency and integrity that many imagine, and in the world of economics, one plus one does not always equal two, and what is on the face is different from what is happening behind the scenes at all. Is he saying real words or is he going to be saved?
And because the picture was revealed for more than about 3 weeks, Dr. Mostafa Madbouly, the prime minister, appeared in statements that were broadcast by all channels and published in almost all newspapers. He explicitly said that the Egyptian pound is valued at much less than its price..Keep in mind that the one who said this is not an economist and does not say anything. The sender is the prime minister who has all the information and data in his hands, meaning that when he speaks, he knows very well what he is saying, and he knows that his words are monitored by all banks and research centers, and if there was one word that was not true, you would have received responses to it.
What happened after the prime minister’s remarks?
Unfortunately, instead of international banks not reviewing themselves and seeing Madbouly’s words and studying them well, they continued to issue reports around which suspicions are hovering, the latest of which was the report of the Swiss Credit Suisse Bank, which predicted that the dollar would reach 45 pounds within days, even though the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar in Egyptian banks was stable for a while. For a long time, even the price of the American currency in the parallel market is witnessing a collapse and a significant decline for a period of time, and it fell from the level of 40 pounds to 36, meaning even if we assume for the sake of argument that the fair price of the pound is the one in the black market, and this is not true, as we are talking about a level of 36 pounds as a maximum for one dollar

Why do we say that a report like the Credit Suisse report is suspicious?
Look, sir, Credit Suisse itself is living its most difficult days and suffering from a severe crisis, and last March there was a lot of talk about selling it, and if the Swiss authorities had intervened at the time and supported it, it would have gone bankrupt, and there is news announced and published in many places that it recently laid off about 1,000 employees .. imagine a bank that has everything These crises and a focused position with the Egyptian pound and its future, the Egyptian currency.. Look, what is the reason that can make him do this?

Who will move banks and financial research centers against Egypt?
There is a very important principle in criminology called “the role of the beneficiary”. He bought it back, and that is why there is very strong pressure on Egypt to devalue its currency, and the government knows this well, and that is why the prime minister came out and spoke about the position of the pound and defended it, perhaps for the first time since the time of the first flotation in 2022
I mean, in the end, there are countries and investment funds in their interest to reduce the value of the pound, and they can pay millions of dollars to publish reports on the future of the Egyptian currency and the need for government intervention to reduce its value, because this will translate into billions of dollars that they will earn in buying shares of companies that will be offered on the stock exchange soon.

Is the Egyptian pound really strong?
There is no doubt that the pound is exposed, like other currencies in emerging markets, to some pressures due to the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war and its strong impact on the grain and oil markets, which led to large financing gaps in the public budget. The fair price of the pound in front of the dollar is supposed to not exceed 26 pounds per dollar, but we all know how speculation, the black market and currency traders manipulate the exchange market and put unreal prices for the foreign currency
Does this mean that there is no second flotation for the pound?
The pound has been stable against the dollar since last March 9, at a level of 30.85 pounds for purchase and 30.95 pounds for sale, meaning it has been stable for more than 3 months. The Central Bank, in cooperation with the government, reveals every little bit about the billions of dollars that have been saved, whether for importers or to pay off Egypt’s external obligations.. By a large percentage, there will not be a new devaluation of the Egyptian pound, which has deteriorated in the short or even medium term. Egypt is waiting for dollar revenues that will enter the country in the coming period and make a real boom in the volume of the dollar supply, and this, at the very least, will cause remarkable stability in the price of the foreign currency.