Relative normality returned to Moscow on Sunday, with the removal of checkpoints and roadblocks on a sunny day, following the ultimately aborted march on the Russian capital by the Wagner group. However, this brief armed rebellion has exposed deep weaknesses within the Kremlin and undermined Vladimir Putin’s rule like never before, according to NBC News. This analysis is shared by most of the American media.
Beyond the future of Putin’s regime, there are many questions that arise. Why did the mercenaries give up so quickly? What are the terms of the alleged agreement negotiated by Alexander Lukashenko between Putin and Yevgeny Prigojine, the head of Wagner, who received a guarantee not to be prosecuted by going to Belarus? The Washington Post explains that the agreement stopped the urgent problem of Prigozhin’s advance on Moscow. He no longer runs the Wagner Group directly and is also outside of Russia, outside of Putin’s immediate control. However, the analyst Joseph Dresen from the Wilson Center think tank cautions that he doesn’t know if Prigozhin should trust Lukashenko.
The New York Times refers to Lukashenko as “The Dictator Next Door” and suggests that he is the big winner of these crazy forty-eight hours. As an ally of Putin, who has been in power for 29 years, Lukashenko is also an international pariah who is trying to use his role as a mediator to restore his image as a statesman.
CNN questions the credibility of the alleged agreement reported by the press services of the Russian and Belarusian presidencies. The whereabouts of Prigojine are still unknown, and he has not made any comment for the moment.
The effects of Wagner’s withdrawal in Africa are also a subject of reflection. CNN points out that Lukashenko is financially dependent on Russia and his support for Russia in the conflict with Ukraine has further isolated him from the West. The American media wonders why Putin would have gone through Lukashenko, risking tarnishing his image as a strong man, rather than negotiating himself.
In a phone call on Sunday, Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky discussed US support for Kyiv as well as the recent events in Russia, according to CBS News. The White House stated that the world must put pressure on Russia until the international order is restored, as tweeted by the Ukrainian president.
Wagner’s precarious situation represents an opportunity for the United States, as pointed out by Politico. The group operates in Africa and the Middle East, and if it were to leave these regions, it could create an opening for a US diplomatic raid and allow the US to regain influence in these areas. Politico predicts that if the United States and other western countries do not intervene, other actors such as the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda will.
How does the failed rebellion in Russia, organized by the Wagner Group, highlight weaknesses within the country’s security apparatus and raise concerns about potential infiltrations and threats?
Ssia, which gives the Kremlin some distance from his actions.
Furthermore, the rebellion revealed the extent to which the Wagner Group had infiltrated Russia’s security forces. The fact that a private military group was able to organize an armed march on the capital is a clear indication of the weaknesses within the country’s security apparatus. This raises concerns about who else may have been infiltrated and what other threats may exist within the system.
The response from the Kremlin to the rebellion was swift and decisive, with Putin personally intervening to quash the uprising. However, the fact that such a rebellion was able to occur in the first place shows a lack of control and raises questions about the loyalty and effectiveness of Russia’s security forces.
The Wagner Group, believed to be linked to Putin’s close ally Prigozhin, has become a prominent player in recent years, involved in conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, and Libya. Its growing influence and activities have raised concerns both domestically and internationally. This failed march on Moscow has put a spotlight on the group’s activities and the potential threat it poses to stability in Russia and beyond.
It remains to be seen how the Kremlin will react to this failed rebellion and the deeper issues it has exposed. Will there be a crackdown on the Wagner Group and other private military organizations operating in Russia? Will there be a purge within the security forces to root out any potential infiltrators? These questions are likely to shape the future direction of Russia and Putin’s rule.
“Although Wagner’s withdrawal from Africa may have immediate repercussions, it presents a potential diplomatic opportunity for the US to strengthen its engagement on the continent. This move could enable the US to foster inclusive partnerships, address security concerns, and promote sustainable development in Africa, ultimately leading to mutual benefits for both parties involved.”
Wagner’s withdrawal in Africa presents both challenges and opportunities. While it leaves a void in security and stability, it also opens up a potential window for the US to strengthen diplomatic ties and play a constructive role in enhancing African development.