With the sound and fury of 20th century wars, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has, for three months, focused international attention. In economic terms, Russia really weighs only through energy sources, but not as a power in itself. It is in strategic terms that Moscow remains a major player, with a strong potential for destabilization as we have seen in the Middle East, in Africa and now in Europe.
However, in the eyes of the American administration, the actor capable of competing, today and in the decades to come, remains China. It is the only country that has the intention, as well as the economic, technological, military and diplomatic means, to promote a different vision of the international order.
said one yesterday at the State Department, shortly before the speech of the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, devoted to this subject.
Fears of a Russian-China axis
The 1945 order is no more. The UN is paralyzed. Multilateral consultation formats have multiplied over the past ten years. According to economic and strategic issues. G7, G20, BRICS, ASEAN etc. The proliferation of formats has gone at the same pace as the weakening of the UN framework.
With, however, a new emerging risk, made more acute by the war in Ukraine. The risk of seeing the strength of the Western bloc erode in the face of convergence of interests between the main autocracies. For example, the solidity of the axis between Moscow and Beijing is probably exaggerated, as the two countries are so wary of each other. But events, and above all strategic interests, can contribute to uniting this axis.
As distracted by Putin as it may have been for three months, American diplomacy continues to see China as the number one issue. far behind, will no longer suffice. China is no more far behind
. And this is the big difference with the Cold War. The rival has a real economic potential for innovation, and it is not a process of democratization that has allowed it to climb so high. On the contrary.
What international order
The link between freedom and wealth, the architrave of American propaganda after 1945, is therefore no longer an undisputed binomial. China even dreams of an alternative, authoritarian and innovative model, strong in the influence that its commercial power has given it for twenty years. To the point of freeing itself from the concept of international order? This is the whole point of the speech given yesterday by Anthony Blinken.
And Ukraine is, from this point of view, a test bed. On the inviolability of borders and sovereignty. With of course the fate of Taiwan in mind, but also beyond. On the climate, we saw Americans and Chinese cooperate decisively during the Paris agreement. Since then, this is the only area where cooperation still works. In the face of security challenges, this is insufficient.
Knowing that China is a far more formidable competitor, economically, than the Soviet Union was, Washington therefore seems unwilling to plunge back into a block-to-block confrontation. While organizing to federate its allies in the Pacific, as it has just done Joe Biden during his visit to Japan. The leaders of the United States, Japan, Australia and India warned last Tuesday against any change the status quo by force
concerned about China’s growing military activity and influence in Asia Pacific.
Between the pandemic, the repositioning of supply chains, food and industrial issues, it is a great game of competition that is engaged between the two great powers. It is not said that the categories and images of the last century – such as the concept of the cold war – are the most suitable for guessing its evolutions. The single example of the Russian invasion of Ukraine shows that hot war is still part of the real risks.
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